Probability Cone Indicator for Forecasting Future Price Ranges (Titan_Probability_Cone)

Indicator Overview

Titan Probability Cone is a market analysis tool that visualizes the range in which price is statistically likely to remain by drawing a cone extending to the right (into the future) from the current price.

While no one can accurately predict where price will move next, it is possible to estimate how far it is likely to move based on recent market volatility. This indicator calculates that expected price range and displays it as expanding bands over time.

• Inner Band = Approximately 68% probability range (more conservative)

• Outer Band = Approximately 95% probability range (wider range)

These two probability zones provide an intuitive estimate of where price is likely to be after a given number of future bars.

How the Indicator Works

The indicator measures the average price movement per bar based on recent market activity and projects that movement into the future. Since uncertainty increases over time, the projected bands gradually widen. However, the widening becomes progressively slower (for example, even if the projection period becomes four times longer, the expected range increases only about twofold). As a result, the projection forms a smooth cone rather than a simple triangle.

Display

The MT5 version displays semi-transparent gradient bands, while the MT4 version uses transparent-style hatching (thin vertical lines), allowing candlesticks to remain visible beneath the projection.

Optionally, the center line can include a drift based on the recent trend, allowing the cone to tilt in the direction of the prevailing market movement.

This indicator is designed as a support tool for evaluating reasonable take-profit and stop-loss distances, as well as estimating potential price targets after breakouts. It does not generate buy or sell signals. The displayed probabilities are statistical estimates based on historical price behavior, assuming current market conditions continue, and do not guarantee future price movements.

How to Read This Indicator

• The price labels (68% / 95%) displayed at the right edge of the cone indicate the projected price range at that future point.

• As price approaches or exceeds the outer (95%) band, it statistically indicates an increasingly extended market.

• Higher volatility produces a wider cone, while lower volatility results in a narrower cone.

• Setting the center line drift to Linear Regression tilts the cone in the direction of the recent trend.

Indicator Settings

Input (for MT5) / Parameter Input (for MT4) Tab Settings

Variable Name	Description	Default
Forward bars to project	Specifies how many future bars the cone will project.	24
Volatility Method	Standard Deviation (STDDEV) or ATR. STDDEV corresponds to the probability labels (68% / 95%).	Standard Deviation
Estimation Period (Bars)	Specifies the period used to calculate volatility.	100
Inner Band Z	Standard deviation multiplier for the inner band (1.0 ≈ 68%).	1.0
Outer Band Z	Standard deviation multiplier for the outer band (2.0 ≈ 95%).	2.0
Drift Method	Slope of the center line. Choose None (Horizontal) or Linear Regression Slope.	None
Drift Calculation Period	Period used to calculate drift with linear regression.	50
Inner Band (±1 sigma) Color	Color of the 68% probability band.	LightSkyBlue
Outer Band (±2 sigma) Color	Color of the 95% probability band.	LightSteelBlue
Center Line Color	Color of the center (projection) line.	Gold
Boundary Line Color	Color of the band outlines.	LightSlateGray
Fill Transparency	Transparency of the bands (0 = Transparent, 100 = Opaque) MT5 only	22
Show labels	Enables/disables the probability and price labels displayed at the right edge.	true
Redraw on every tick	Updates on every tick when ON (OFF updates only on new bars).	false

Color (for MT5) / Color Settings (for MT4) Tab Settings

Not used in this indicator.