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Key Summary The dollar remained under pressure amid widespread expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, driving non-U.S. currencies like the Australian dollar higher. Gold, bolstered by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, breached the $3,400 mark and neared historical highs. Oil prices fluctuated amid supply concerns and complex geopolitical developments. Equity sectors diverged significantly, with new energy and insurance sectors posting strong gains.
Major News and Market Impact
Key Highlights: Fed rate cut expectations intensified, driving the dollar index down nearly 2% for August. The Australian dollar extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, reaching around 0.6533. Offshore yuan interbank rates rebounded. The Reserve Bank of Indonesia actively intervened in the forex market to stabilize the rupiah.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar weakness bearish for USD vs majors; bullish for AUD, certain EMs. |
| Market Impact | Non-USD rebound, AUD nears 0.6550; yuan volatility, RBI limits. |
| Core Logic | Rate cut bets weaken USD appeal; funds shift to risk assets. |
Key Highlights: China's A-shares (mainland Chinese stocks) three major indices advanced in morning trade, with the ChiNext Index gaining over 2%. CATL surged more more than 11%, while insurance and liquor sectors rebounded. Semiconductor and computing power sectors corrected, with SMIC falling over 4%. Hong Kong-listed auto stocks collectively rebounded.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | CATL, solid-state battery concepts bullish for new energy. |
| Market Impact | ChiNext leads growth; funds flow to new energy, insurance. |
| Core Logic | Investors seek earnings certainty, transition themes; profit-taking in high-valuation tech. |
Key Highlights: Japan's July industrial output fell more than expected. Japan's CPI slowed, but core inflation remained elevated. The Reserve Bank of Indonesia continued forex intervention to stabilize the rupiah. Sino-U.S. diplomatic communication advanced, maintaining a delicate balance.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | RBI action aids regional risk; Sino-U.S. diplomacy improves risk appetite. |
| Market Impact | Fed pivot, easing geopolitics boost risk assets. |
| Core Logic | Macro data, policy signals intertwine, shaping monetary paths, investor sentiment. |
Key Highlights: Gold breached $3,400 to a five-week high, driven by safe-haven demand and accelerated central bank gold purchases. WTI crude edged lower to $64.10/barrel, as oversupply concerns and geopolitical tensions intertwined to affect price fluctuations.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Oil faces two-way risk from supply disruptions, dim peace prospects. |
| Market Impact | Gold attracts safe-haven flows, eyes $3,500 high. |
| Core Logic | Weak USD, geopolitics boost gold's safe-haven appeal. |
Key Highlights: China's Foreign Ministry stressed willingness to work with the U.S. for win-win cooperation. U.S.-India trade tensions may ease. The German Chancellor dismissed prospects of a Russia-Ukraine 'Putin-Zelensky meeting'. Geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Sino-U.S. easing boosts global risk sentiment; U.S.-India trade eases. |
| Market Impact | Divergent geopolitics benefit safe havens like gold. |
| Core Logic | Complex international relations drive fund rotation between risk, safe-haven assets. |
