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Potential shifts in the Federal Reserve Board's composition fueled market uncertainty, keeping the dollar under pressure while the euro and pound strengthened. China's August Manufacturing PMI edged higher, and non-manufacturing activity continued to expand, with a stable economic backdrop supporting risk assets. Safe-haven demand drove gold to a four-month high. Crude oil prices fluctuated amid heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, yet remained pressured.
Key Highlights: The dollar tumbled 2.23% in August, while the euro and pound performed strongly. Potential personnel changes on the Federal Reserve Board sparked divergent policy expectations, with upcoming non-farm payrolls data set to be key for the next market phase.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar weakness bearish for USD vs. majors; euro, pound gain from weak dollar. |
| Market Impact | Short-term FX volatility to rise; significant moves possible around NFP data. |
| Core Logic | Potential Fed Board power shift; rate hike/cut expectations diverge, weakening USD; safe-haven flows to EUR, GBP. |
Key Highlights: Chinese listed companies reported modest increases in H1 revenue and net profit. The brokerage sector saw a 60.93% surge in earnings, while technology and new energy sectors were active. Alibaba's market cap surged nearly 13%.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Improved earnings positive for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks; tech stock volatility a risk. |
| Market Impact | Investor confidence up; funds into tech, new energy, consumption; mid-term rally likely. |
| Core Logic | Solid fundamentals support valuations; policy, sector boom drive leading stocks. |
Key Highlights: China's August Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a slight month-on-month increase, while the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.3%, continuing to expand. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw improved sentiment.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Manufacturing rebound, non-manufacturing expansion support stability; high-tech boosts long-term growth. |
| Market Impact | Supports risk assets, yuan; positive outlook for commodity demand. |
| Core Logic | New drivers optimize economy; steady expansion, but manufacturing pressure needs data confirmation. |
Key Highlights: Gold prices surged nearly 5% this month, breaching $3,450 per ounce to a four-month high. Crude oil prices fluctuated due to heightened geopolitical risks like the Sudan oilfield attack, but remained pressured below $65 per barrel.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strong safe-haven demand bullish for gold; crude supply risks offer short-term support, demand concerns cap gains. |
| Market Impact | Gold attracts safe-haven flows; NFP data may spark more volatility; crude eyes Middle East security. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical tensions boost gold's safe-haven appeal; complex oil supply/demand; price depends on geopolitics, global recovery. |
Key Highlights: Putin attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, solidifying China-Russia ties. Yemen's Houthi rebels vowed revenge after Israeli airstrikes, maintaining the risk of escalating Middle East conflict. The US denying a visa to the Palestinian President drew international attention.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Geopolitical tensions bearish for risk assets, bullish for safe havens like gold; regional stability concerns. |
| Market Impact | Middle East tensions may fuel energy price volatility, increasing global market uncertainty. |
| Core Logic | Escalating conflicts boost safe-haven demand; constrain global supply chains, trade; dual impact on commodities, FX. |
