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Key Summary
Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut pressured the dollar, causing short-term volatility and weakness in the forex market. Global equities showed divergence, with technology stocks under pressure while Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained on active AI and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors. Precious metals, especially gold and silver, attracted flight-to-safety flows, pushing prices to multi-year highs.
Major News and Market Impact
Key Highlights: The dollar index continued to decline amid growing Fed rate cut bets. USD/CAD fell for five consecutive days to around 1.3740. The Australian dollar strengthened toward the 0.66 level against the dollar, while USD/JPY traded sideways near 147.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut expectations bearish for dollar; bullish for non-U.S. currencies like AUD, CAD |
| Market Impact | Dollar under pressure; non-U.S. currencies boosted by inflows |
| Core Logic | Rate cut bets reduced dollar appeal; light Labor Day trading limited volatility but trend remained weak |
Key Highlights: Alibaba surged 18%, supported by AI semiconductor investments and cloud business growth. China’s ChiNext Index rose over 2%, led by pharmaceuticals and base metals. Tesla shares in South Korea faced heavy selling by retail investors, while U.S. tech stocks showed weakness.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Alibaba and AI/cloud sectors positive; China’s ChiNext up; Korean Tesla and U.S. tech stocks pressured |
| Market Impact | Chinese and Hong Kong markets active with tech and pharma innovation driving gains; Korean and Japanese equities under short-term pressure |
| Core Logic | AI investment and drug innovation bolstered select sectors; global tech faces valuation pressure and demand slowdown |
Key Highlights: China’s August manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 50.5, India’s manufacturing PMI hit a 17-year high, while signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market raised recession concerns.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strong China and India manufacturing data support emerging markets; U.S. labor weakness raises downside risks |
| Market Impact | Emerging market currencies and assets supported; U.S. uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment |
| Core Logic | Emerging market manufacturing rebound supports global growth; U.S. labor softness may accelerate Fed easing |
Key Highlights: Gold rose for five consecutive days nearing record highs, silver surpassed $40 per ounce hitting a 14-year peak, copper approached $10,000 per ton as base metals rallied sharply.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut bets and geopolitical risk boosted precious metals; solid base metals demand lifted copper prices |
| Market Impact | Precious and base metal stocks attracted inflows; commodities overall trended higher |
| Core Logic | Lower real yields enhanced precious metals’ appeal; stable industrial demand underpinned copper fundamentals |
Key Highlights: President Trump’s challenge to Fed independence raised inflation concerns; the EU plans to tighten defense investment reviews; a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in Afghanistan caused significant casualties.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Trump’s actions increased policy uncertainty risk; EU defense spending heightened regional security focus; geopolitical risks lifted safe havens |
| Market Impact | Flight-to-safety flows boosted gold and yen demand; some risk assets came under pressure |
| Core Logic | Policy and geopolitical risks reinforced safe-haven demand; long-term focus remains on Fed policy stability and regional security developments |
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