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Global markets extended gains as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut boosted risk appetite. The dollar came under short-term pressure but remained volatile. Gold surged past its historical peak, breaking above $3,500 per ounce, while crude oil held firm amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the approaching OPEC+ meeting. Asia-Pacific equities generally traded lower, with technology and computing sectors retreating, whereas precious metals and major financial stocks outperformed. Deepening geopolitical ties between China and Russia provided market stability, though seasonal risks in global bond markets warrant caution heading into September.
Key Highlights: After five consecutive days of declines, the dollar rebounded modestly as investors awaited U.S. employment data this week to confirm rate cut bets. Asian currencies broadly weakened, with the Indian rupee nearing historic lows. The euro attempted to breach technical resistance but retreated.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut expectations weighed on the dollar; supported non-U.S. currencies; weak rupee raised regional risks |
| Market Impact | Dollar index volatility increased; Asian currencies pressured; euro needs to break key resistance to confirm rebound |
| Core Logic | Rate cut bets pressured dollar amid policy uncertainty; regional economic divergence drove currency differentiation |
Key Highlights: The S&P 500 continued reaching new highs despite concerns over the September effect. Hong Kong stocks saw strength in healthcare, precious metals, and major financial sectors, while technology and computing hardware shares declined notably. Several brokerage firms and new energy companies attracted institutional interest.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | AI, healthcare, financials supported; tech hardware and digital currency sectors faced near-term pressure |
| Market Impact | U.S. equity highs fueled risk appetite; marked structural divergence between Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong shares |
| Core Logic | Focus on earnings certainty and policy-backed sectors; rising safe-haven demand triggered growth sector pullback |
Key Highlights: Morgan Stanley forecasted a larger-than-expected Fed rate cut. Slowing inflation in South Korea strengthened expectations for an October easing by the Bank of Korea. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit advanced multilateral cooperation and sustainable investment initiatives. Meanwhile, U.S. housing supply glut raised cautionary signals.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Rate cut expectations bolstered asset prices; easing outlooks in China and South Korea enhanced economic support; U.S. housing oversupply posed risks |
| Market Impact | Global monetary policy turned dovish, boosting gold and other safe havens while intensifying structural pressures in some economies |
| Core Logic | Dovish monetary policy expectations dominated near-term sentiment; fundamental disparities caused regional performance divergence |
Key Highlights: Gold surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time ever, with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs raising targets toward $4,000. Silver broke above $40 per ounce for the first time in 14 years. Oil maintained a firm upward trend amid tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold and silver rallied on rate cut bets and tariff uncertainty; oil supported by tight supply conditions |
| Market Impact | Precious metals attracted flight-to-safety flows; commodities overall showed robust performance |
| Core Logic | Combined easing expectations and geopolitical risks fueled precious metal demand; energy supply concerns sustained high oil prices |
Key Highlights: Chinese President Xi Jinping met Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Russian President Vladimir Putin to strengthen strategic cooperation and security guarantees. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin summit adopted a sustainable development investment declaration. Rising tensions in Latin America escalated as U.S. naval focus on Venezuela sparked regional unease.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Deepening China-Russia-Pakistan ties stabilized regional dynamics; Latin America tensions posed potential black swan risk |
| Market Impact | Geopolitical stability bolstered Asia-Pacific and emerging market confidence; localized risks still threaten disruption |
| Core Logic | Multilateral cooperation among major powers enhanced regional security supporting global supply chains; local conflicts require vigilance |
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