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Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts intensified, weighing on the dollar in the short term as markets focused on upcoming U.S. employment data. Global equities broadly declined, with China and Hong Kong’s automotive sectors notably retreating. Gold experienced short-term profit-taking but maintained a strong bullish outlook over the medium to long term. Oil prices fluctuated lower, pressured by OPEC+ production increase expectations.
Key Highlights: Several Fed officials signaled potential rate cuts, while U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low. The dollar-yen pair traded near the 148 level amid narrowing U.S.-Japan yield differentials. The pound rebounded modestly following hawkish signals from the Bank of England.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut bets weighed on dollar; job openings decline added pressure; BoE hawkish comments supported pound briefly |
| Market Impact | Dollar remained under short-term pressure; yen benefited from tighter yield gap; pound showed resilience amid volatility |
| Core Logic | Weak employment data reinforced rate cut expectations, prompting cautious dollar bulls awaiting nonfarm payrolls |
Key Highlights: China A-shares (mainland Chinese stocks) A50 futures dropped over 2%, with Hong Kong’s automotive sector broadly declining as BYD and NIO led losses. U.S. tech giant Alphabet surged on strength in AI and chip businesses.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Weakness in China and Hong Kong auto sectors bearish; AI-driven tech growth boosted related U.S. stocks |
| Market Impact | Domestic consumption and manufacturing sectors under pressure; tech and AI stocks acted as safe havens; clear U.S. market divergence |
| Core Logic | Domestic growth concerns and lowered sales forecasts weighed on markets, while innovation fueled selective U.S. outperformance |
Key Highlights: The Fed’s Beige Book showed near-stagnant economic activity with tariff-induced inflation pressures. Australia posted a July trade surplus at a one-and-a-half-year high. U.S. labor demand slowed.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Weak U.S. economy and slowing labor demand bearish for risk assets; rising Fed rate cut odds; strong Australian exports supported commodities demand |
| Market Impact | Heightened global growth uncertainty boosted safe-haven assets amid easing policy bets; resource countries’ fundamentals improved selectively |
| Core Logic | Rising risk of a soft landing in the U.S. shifted monetary policy toward easing, influencing global capital flows and risk appetite |
Key Highlights: Gold and silver plunged over 1% in short-term profit-taking, with spot gold falling below $3,600 per ounce. Brent crude extended declines, breaking below $67.5/barrel. Tokenized gold market surpassed $2.5 billion in size.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold’s short-term pullback was technical; medium-term bullish outlook intact; oil prices pressured by OPEC+ supply hike expectations |
| Market Impact | Precious metals volatility increased but trend remains positive; commodity price divergence evident—energy weak, metals mixed |
| Core Logic | High sensitivity to Fed policy shifts drove gold’s safe-haven appeal amid technical adjustment pressures |
Key Highlights: Central banks of China and Azerbaijan signed an MoU to enhance financial cooperation. The Taiwan Affairs Office issued stern warnings against Lai Ching-te’s remarks, reaffirming China’s commitment to national unity. The Trump administration appealed an illegal tariff ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | China-Azerbaijan cooperation bolsters yuan internationalization and regional stability; cross-strait tensions raise geopolitical risks; ongoing U.S. tariff disputes disrupt trade environment |
| Market Impact | Geopolitical tensions constrained Asian capital flows and risk appetite; Sino-U.S. relations volatility affected global supply chains and investment confidence |
| Core Logic | Political risks remain key uncertainty drivers requiring close monitoring for impacts on capital flows and safe-haven demand |
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