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August U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weakened, reinforcing bets on a 50 basis-point Fed rate cut in September and limiting the dollar’s short-term rebound. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation triggered yen depreciation and a sharp rally in Japanese stocks, with markets closely watching his successor’s policy stance. Gold surged past $3,600 per ounce to a new high, supported by central banks’ sustained buying and flight-to-safety demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced a modest 137,000 barrels per day production increase for October, weighing on oil prices amid ongoing supply tightness concerns.
Key Highlights: Soft U.S. nonfarm payrolls intensified Fed rate cut bets, capping the dollar index’s rebound; yen weakened following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation; Asian currencies remained broadly stable.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut expectations support non-dollar currencies; Japanese political uncertainty pressures yen |
| Market Impact | EUR/USD climbed near 1.1760; USD/JPY rose above 148 with increased volatility |
| Core Logic | Weak payrolls boosted rate cut bets weighing on dollar; political risks pressured yen; focus on Fed statement and new Japanese PM |
Key Highlights: Alibaba gained nearly 4%, attracting nearly HKD 20 billion in southbound inflows; Japanese stocks jumped to record highs after Ishiba’s resignation; China’s ChiNext Index retreated 1.33%, led by active robotics sector.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Alibaba and tech sector favored by capital inflows; Japan political shift boosts stocks; ChiNext pullback reflects short-term profit-taking |
| Market Impact | Strong performance in Hong Kong and Japan; small- and mid-caps corrected with faster sector rotation |
| Core Logic | Southbound inflows and political events drive Asian market divergence; watch tech and clean energy sectors amid ChiNext volatility |
Key Highlights: U.S. labor market weakness raised recession concerns, fueling Fed rate cut expectations; China’s trade with ASEAN and EU expanded significantly through August while U.S. trade volumes declined; India maintains optimistic growth outlook.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Weak U.S. jobs data negative short-term but supports easing policies long-term; China’s trade structure optimization positive |
| Market Impact | Rising global growth uncertainty splits risk asset performance amid easing policy expectations |
| Core Logic | Macro data signal sluggish global recovery; clear Fed easing path; China and India growth resilience underpin markets |
Key Highlights: Gold surpassed $3,600 per ounce on ten consecutive months of central bank buying and safe-haven demand; OPEC+ plans October output rise of 137,000 barrels per day, smaller than previous increases; lithium carbonate prices jumped over 2% amid tightening supply expectations.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold and lithium supported by supply tightness and risk-off flows; oil pressured by output hike but limited downside due to supply concerns |
| Market Impact | Precious metals remain bullish; energy metals and clean energy materials active; oil price volatility rises |
| Core Logic | Inflation and geopolitical risks drive gold gains; supply bottlenecks boost new energy materials prices creating upstream commodity trading opportunities |
Key Highlights: Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation unsettled Japan’s political landscape with policy direction under scrutiny; French government faces confidence vote crisis amid instability; Hamas signals willingness for Gaza ceasefire talks.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Japan political uncertainty pressures yen and bonds supporting safe havens; Middle East ceasefire talks ease some geopolitical risks but uncertainties remain |
| Market Impact | Heightened political risks fuel safe-haven demand boosting gold while Asian currencies and equities diverge |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical events increase market volatility impacting FX and precious metals; flexible trading strategies needed to navigate sudden news |
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