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The U.S. Supreme Court struck down former President Trump’s global tariffs, invalidating a signature protectionist policy and triggering potential $175 billion in refund liabilities. In response, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff plan, injecting renewed uncertainty into trade dynamics and markets. Meanwhile, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in Q4 2025, inflation remains sticky at 3%, and geopolitical tensions with Iran escalate, keeping oil prices supported amid risk-off sentiment.
Key News Summary: The Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs weakens the USD’s safe-haven appeal amid increased trade policy uncertainty. The dollar trimmed gains despite Fed rate cut bets fading. Rising U.S.-Iran tensions add geopolitical risk support to oil-linked currencies.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD bias short-term; cautious on USD strength due to trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks. |
| Market Impact | Dollar pares weekly gains; EUR/USD and commodity-linked FX (AUD, CAD) gain modestly on tariff ruling. |
| Core Logic | Tariff removal reduces trade friction fears but new tariff threats sustain uncertainty; Iran risk supports commodity FX volatility. |
Key News Summary: U.S. equities rallied post-Supreme Court tariff ruling with S&P 500 up and Dow gaining 200 points as tariff-related cost pressures ease temporarily. E-commerce and tech stocks like Amazon and Etsy surged while some AI-related software stocks showed mixed reactions after earnings.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish equities overall; tech and retail sectors benefit from tariff relief but remain sensitive to policy shifts. |
| Market Impact | Rally driven by reduced tariff costs; volatility expected as new tariffs loom and Nvidia earnings approach. |
| Core Logic | Tariff removal lowers input costs boosting margins; market awaits clarity on Trump's new tariff framework and geopolitical developments. |
Key News Summary: U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in Q4 2025, below forecasts, partly due to government shutdown impacts; inflation remains firm at ~3%. Treasury signals fiscal pressures from possible $175 billion tariff refunds. UK reports record budget surplus, boosting sterling sentiment.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed macro outlook; slower growth weighs on risk assets while stable inflation supports hawkish Fed stance near term. |
| Market Impact | Growth miss limits USD upside; inflation stickiness keeps rate hike expectations alive; UK economic resilience supports GBP. |
| Core Logic | Weak GDP dampens growth optimism but persistent inflation sustains tightening bias; fiscal uncertainties add downside risks. |
Key News Summary: Oil prices remain stable with upside pressure from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions amid possible limited military strikes by Trump administration. Gold sees modest safe-haven demand amid geopolitical jitters but capped by stronger dollar tendencies.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish oil on Middle East risk premium; gold mildly bullish as geopolitical hedge but capped by USD moves. |
| Market Impact | Oil steady near recent highs; gold consolidates with mixed flows amid risk-off environment. |
| Core Logic | Supply disruption fears underpin oil prices; gold supported as geopolitical insurance but limited by currency dynamics. |
Important News Summary: Geopolitical risks rise sharply as Trump considers limited military action against Iran following Supreme Court tariff ruling fallout, increasing market uncertainty globally. U.S.-Iran tensions threaten energy supply routes (Strait of Hormuz), while global trading partners welcome the tariff ruling but face murky trade policy waters ahead.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish global risk sentiment due to Middle East tensions and trade policy unpredictability. |
| Market Impact | Heightened volatility in energy markets, FX safe havens (JPY, CHF), and defense-related equities gains potential. |
| Core Logic | Military escalation risk fuels flight-to-quality flows; uncertain trade policies keep global commerce fragile. |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
