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Trump’s immediate hike of global tariffs from 10% to 15% despite the Supreme Court ruling against his previous tariff authority is injecting fresh uncertainty into markets, pressuring U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies while Asian equities, notably South Korea’s Kospi, show resilience. The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions with imminent talks and military posturing add geopolitical risk, supporting safe-haven demand for gold and oil price strength. Traders should position cautiously around tariff-related volatility and geopolitical developments, favoring defensive FX and commodities while monitoring equity divergences.
Key News Summary: Trump raised global tariffs to 15% “effective immediately” using a different legal mechanism after the Supreme Court struck down his prior authority; importers continue paying tariffs amid legal uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran tensions escalate with potential strikes looming, increasing safe-haven flows. Asian markets brush off tariff news, limiting USD strength.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD bias short-term on tariff uncertainty; safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF) supported |
| Market Impact | USD pressured by trade policy uncertainty; JPY/CHF gain on geopolitical risk; emerging FX volatile |
| Core Logic | Tariff hikes increase trade friction risks weighing on USD; geopolitical risk drives safe havens |
Key News Summary: U.S. stock futures declined on tariff-related uncertainty; however, Asian stocks, particularly South Korea’s Kospi, hit fresh highs as investors appear to discount tariff impact temporarily. The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks face profit-taking amid regulatory scrutiny and AI-driven reassessments.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed: bearish U.S. equities short-term due to tariffs; bullish Asian equities resilience |
| Market Impact | Increased volatility in U.S. tech stocks; rotation into defensive sectors and Asian markets |
| Core Logic | Tariff fears dampen U.S. market sentiment; Asia benefits from relative stability and growth outlook |
Key News Summary: UK job vacancies fell to lowest since pandemic signaling softening labor market; China overtakes U.S. as Germany’s top trading partner reflecting shifting global trade dynamics amid tariff tensions. U.S. economic growth slowed in Q4 2025 amid government shutdown effects.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish for U.S. growth outlook short-term; cautious for UK labor market; neutral for Eurozone |
| Market Impact | Slower growth expectations weigh on risk assets; potential central bank caution persists |
| Core Logic | Trade tensions and political disruptions slow growth momentum globally, pressuring cyclical assets |
Key News Summary: Oil prices rise amid heightened risks of U.S.-Iran conflict as two carrier groups deploy near Iran. Gold benefits from renewed geopolitical risk premium and safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties and Middle East tensions.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish oil and gold on geopolitical risk |
| Market Impact | Elevated oil prices pressure inflation outlooks; gold gains as hedge against market volatility |
| Core Logic | Conflict fears drive energy supply concerns; tariffs and unrest boost demand for safe assets |
Important News Summary: Mexico experiences unrest after killing of cartel leader “El Mencho,” raising local security concerns but limited global spillover. Iran faces sustained student protests despite government crackdown while preparing for potential U.S. strikes with upcoming Geneva talks offering a possible diplomatic off-ramp.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish regional stability; mixed diplomatic outlook |
| Market Impact | Heightened geopolitical risk supports safe havens and commodity volatility |
| Core Logic | Unrest in Mexico contained regionally; Iran tensions remain key driver of global risk sentiment |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
