Samsung blowout profit sparks sell-the-fact; Nikkei -2%
As of 2026-07-07 12:00 SGT
Key points
- Samsung Electronics reported preliminary Q2 operating profit of 89.4 trillion KRW — 19x a year ago and a record — yet shares fell more than 6% in a sell-the-fact move, dragging the KOSPI down as much as 4% in early trade
- The chip-stock selloff cascaded into Tokyo: Kioxia HD fell as much as 11.7% and the Nikkei 225, already down 889 points at the morning close, extended losses past 1,200 points in afternoon trade
- On Wall Street overnight the Dow posted its first-ever close above 53,000 (53,055.91), lifted by Broadcom after it extended its Apple chip partnership through 2031; SpaceX formally joined the Nasdaq-100
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck at least two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including an LNG tanker, pushing WTI crude into the low $69s before easing back to $68.86
- USD/JPY holds at 161.87, pinned near a 40-year low as intervention-watch language returns and speculative yen shorts reach their most stretched positioning since 2007
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 161.87 | -0.13% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1440 | -0.06% |
| Nikkei 225 (intraday) | 68,610 | -1.62% |
| Hang Seng (intraday) | 23,504 | -0.48% |
| Dow futures | 53,429 | +0.11% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,572.00 | -0.26% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,645 | -0.99% |
| Gold futures | 4,139.10 | -0.68% |
| WTI crude | 68.86 | +0.45% |
| Bitcoin | 63,164 | -1.30% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.479% | -0.6bp |
Foreign exchange — USD/JPY anchored near 161.87 on intervention watch
USD/JPY trades at 161.87, contained between Monday's high at 162.18 and low at 161.67 with little directional conviction. Speculative net yen shorts have reached their heaviest position since 2007, keeping structural pressure on the currency, while the narrowing US-Japan rate differential and escalating verbal warnings from Tokyo officials are tempering the appetite for fresh yen selling above 162. A former Japanese vice finance minister described the yen as roughly 20% undervalued, reinforcing intervention risk. The PBOC set its USD/CNY central parity at 6.8054, fractionally stronger than Monday's 6.8066, a modest yuan-supportive signal. Through the rest of the Asian session, USD/JPY is likely to remain near 161.87 in a narrow range, with the FOMC minutes on 9 July (02:00 SGT) providing the next potential catalyst for a directional move.
Equities — Samsung sell-the-fact drags Asia lower despite Wall Street highs
The overnight Wall Street backdrop was constructive: the Dow closed at a record 53,055.91, Broadcom surged after extending its Apple chip deal to 2031, and SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq-100 lifted passive demand for tech. None of that optimism held in Asia. Samsung Electronics released a preliminary Q2 operating profit of 89.4 trillion KRW — around 19 times the year-ago figure and a quarterly record — but shares fell more than 6% as the result, while impressive, had already been priced in. South Korea's KOSPI slipped more than 4% at the open. The slide cascaded into Tokyo: Kioxia HD fell as much as 11.7%, Tokyo Electron dropped sharply, and the Nikkei 225, which had already closed the morning session down 889 points at 68,848, extended losses past 1,200 points in afternoon trade. Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.48% and Taiwan's TAIEX fell roughly 1% to 46,084. In contrast, semiconductor materials and advanced packaging names in China's A-share market traded against the trend, and Nasdaq futures are showing limited damage, reflecting the bifurcated nature of the semiconductor selloff. Into the New York open, the post-Samsung overhang is likely to keep Asian chip stocks under pressure near the 68,610 level on the Nikkei, though any sharper drop could attract dip buyers.
Macro — Japan wages rise for a fifth month; Fed hike bets scale back after weak payrolls
Japan's May real wages rose 1.4% year-on-year for a fifth consecutive monthly gain, yet household spending fell 0.4% for a sixth straight month, underscoring that higher pay has not yet translated into broader consumption. Japan's 30-year JGB auction attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.55x — the strongest since May 2019 — sending the 30-year yield down 5 basis points to 4.025%, a sign that demand for duration is returning. In the US, the June non-farm payroll count of 57,000 — well below forecasts — led markets to largely remove a September Fed hike from pricing. The FOMC minutes due 9 July (02:00 SGT) will be scrutinized for the committee's view on inflation persistence and the timing of any further moves.
Commodities — Hormuz attacks lift WTI; gold drifts lower ahead of FOMC minutes
WTI crude advanced to $68.86 (+0.45%), pushing above Monday's intraday high of $68.80, after reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz including an LNG tanker. Brent crude also moved above $72. Gold slipped to $4,139.10 (-0.68%), extending losses for a second consecutive session. The flare-up in Hormuz tensions is providing a bid for the safe-haven US dollar, which weighs on the non-yielding metal; receding Fed rate-hike bets offer some offset. The market is in a holding pattern into the FOMC minutes. Into the European session, WTI near $68.86 will remain sensitive to Hormuz headlines, while gold at $4,139 awaits the FOMC minutes for its next directional signal.
Geopolitics — Hormuz attacks revive shipping risk; China missile test stirs Pacific tension
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck at least two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, according to US officials cited by Axios, including an LNG tanker that radioed UKMTO reporting a hit. Iranian state media described the vessel as having ignored warnings. A separate LNG carrier loaded in Qatar reportedly reversed course in the Persian Gulf. The attacks raised doubts about any informal US-Iran understanding. Separately, China test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile in the Pacific, drawing expressions of concern from Australia and neighboring countries. On the diplomatic front, President Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington around 24 September — the first time a specific date has been mentioned publicly — providing a measure of optimism for eventual US-China stabilization.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 18:30 | UK | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | Medium |
| 07/07 22:00 | CA | Ivey PMI (forecast 59.1) | Medium |
| 07/08 10:00 | NZ | Official Cash Rate (forecast 2.50%) | High |
| 07/08 10:00 | NZ | RBNZ Rate Statement | High |
| 07/08 11:00 | NZ | RBNZ Press Conference | High |
| 07/09 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | High |
| 07/09 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 218K) | Medium |
| 07/10 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 11.2K) | High |
| 07/10 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.6%) | High |