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Global markets rallied broadly, fueled by dovish signals from Fed Chair Powell that intensified September rate cut bets. Technology and rare earth sectors posted strong gains. The dollar index edged higher but remained under pressure, while the Chinese yuan and Australian dollar both strengthened significantly. Gold jumped briefly before fluctuating, requiring confirmation of a break above key resistance. Commodity prices edged up, with tight supply expectations for coking coal and other ferrous metals underpinning prices, and nonferrous metals benefiting from capital inflows.
Key Highlights: Fed Chair Powell delivered dovish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium, with markets broadly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driving the Australian dollar higher against the greenback. The Chinese yuan also appreciated sharply against the dollar to around 7.1517. The Japanese yen rebounded after the Bank of Japan hinted at ripe conditions for a rate hike.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed cut bets positive for non-USD (AUD, CNY); JPY on BoJ hike. |
| Market Impact | AUD/USD +0.09%; CNY +0.16% vs USD; DXY +0.16%. |
| Core Logic | High-yield currency flows; CNY domestic policy, foreign inflows; Japan wage growth. |
Key Highlights: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index surged 3%, hitting a new phase high. China's A-share Shanghai Composite Index neared 3,900 points, with combined turnover across both bourses hitting the second-highest on record. Jefferies raised its S&P 500 target price to 6,600 points, citing strong earnings season performance.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Global equities positive on rate cut bets, improved earnings. |
| Market Impact | HK, A-shares, US equities rose; Tech, nonferrous metals, real estate led. |
| Core Logic | Lower funding costs, higher risk appetite; strong earnings drive valuation. |
Key Highlights: Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index beat expectations but saw a muted market reaction. Bank of Japan Governor expects wage growth to exacerbate inflation. China's domestic PPI may have bottomed out. CITIC Securities forecasts three Fed rate cuts this year.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | German sentiment aids Eurozone; Japan wage growth signals hike; China macro stable. |
| Market Impact | Euro pressured short-term, but fundamental support; US Treasury yields volatile. |
| Core Logic | Divergent global recovery; Fed easing vs. other central banks tightening. |
Key Highlights: Coking coal prices are set to rise 50-75 yuan/ton from August 26 amid tight supply. WTI crude topped $64 per barrel, gaining modestly. Gold jumped briefly after Powell's dovish remarks, then fluctuated.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Coking coal, ferrous tight supply positive; nonferrous active; gold profit-taking. |
| Market Impact | Ferrous, nonferrous active; gold fluctuated, watch key technical breakout. |
| Core Logic | Strong demand, supply limits drive prices; commodities supported by policy/capital. |
Key Highlights: Israeli PM stated a phased withdrawal if Hezbollah disarms. Iran is willing to reduce uranium enrichment to avoid UK sanctions, though nuclear talks remain unclear. India-US trade talks continue, but tariff pressure persists.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Mideast easing weighs on oil, but risks persist; India-US trade friction. |
| Market Impact | Oil volatility intensified; safe-haven gold demand resilient; trade friction drags. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitics drive energy, safe-haven assets; easing cuts extreme risk premium. |
