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Global market sentiment improved on expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and signs of manufacturing recovery in Europe. Precious metals, especially silver, surged to a 14-year high, while equity markets showed mixed performance. Both the Hang Seng Index and A-shares (mainland Chinese stocks) posted strong gains at the start of September. However, weak UK manufacturing data and ongoing trade tensions weighed on near-term risk appetite. The dollar index declined under pressure, and the Chinese yuan depreciated modestly. Energy prices advanced steadily. Market focus centered on safe-haven demand for gold and silver, early signals of eurozone economic revival, and risks surrounding the pound’s trajectory.
Key Highlights: The dollar index fell 0.22%, while the Chinese yuan weakened slightly to 7.1332 against the dollar. The euro rebounded to 1.1736 USD, supported by eurozone manufacturing expansion, and the pound rose modestly to 1.3535 USD despite soft UK manufacturing data weighing on sterling.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Eurozone manufacturing expansion boosts euro; weak UK manufacturing pressures pound; Fed rate cut bets weigh on dollar; yuan mildly weaker amid domestic and external factors. |
| Market Impact | Euro’s near-term upside opened; pound faces increased volatility under pressure; yuan fluctuations limited but policy direction watched closely. |
| Core Logic | European economic recovery strengthens euro demand; UK structural issues and tax concerns cap pound gains; Fed rate cut expectations weaken dollar appeal. |
Key Highlights: The Hang Seng Index surged over 2%, led by technology and gold stocks, with Alibaba soaring 18.5%. Mainland China’s A-shares started September strongly as the ChiNext Index hit a three-and-a-half-year high. Share buybacks by Industrial Fulian and HSBC Holdings bolstered market confidence.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strength in tech and gold sectors supports related stocks; some infrastructure segments lag; buybacks enhance liquidity and confidence. |
| Market Impact | Bullish momentum in Hong Kong and mainland markets likely to continue; rising focus on tech and consumer sectors. |
| Core Logic | Increased capital expenditure in AI and cloud computing fuels tech gains; safe-haven flows lift gold stocks; fund inflows boost overall market activity. |
Key Highlights: Eurozone manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in August since 2022, with Italy’s unemployment rate falling to 6.0%. UK manufacturing PMI contracted further alongside ongoing job losses. Turkey’s second-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations at 4.8%.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Positive data from eurozone and Turkey support regional assets; weak UK manufacturing heightens recession risks. |
| Market Impact | European assets gain appeal; Fed policy shifts influence global capital flows; UK assets face higher risk premiums. |
| Core Logic | Early signs of European recovery underpin euro and related assets; UK structural challenges and tax burdens suppress growth, increasing currency and bond volatility. |
Key Highlights: Silver surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time in 14 years, outpacing gold gains as precious metals rallied on safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations. Gold approached historic highs amid strong bullish momentum but faced technical resistance. Oil prices rose steadily.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Safe-haven demand and Fed easing bets drive sharp rises in silver and gold; stable oil supply supports modest price gains. |
| Market Impact | Precious metals attract speculative inflows but face short-term technical pullback risks; steady energy prices help anchor inflation expectations. |
| Core Logic | Potential Fed easing combined with geopolitical uncertainty fuels precious metals demand; silver’s dual role as industrial metal enhances appeal over gold. |
Key Highlights: Turkey actively promoted peace talks between Russia and Ukraine amid persistent military tensions in the Middle East. Europe planned troop deployments to support Ukraine, while US trade protectionism faced legal challenges after a court ruled against certain measures.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Turkey’s mediation eases regional tensions benefiting risk assets; US trade policy uncertainty raises global trade friction risks. |
| Market Impact | Geopolitical risks continue supporting energy prices and safe-haven assets while increasing supply chain volatility globally. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical dynamics exert dual pressure on commodities and risk sentiment; escalating trade frictions may hinder global economic recovery, prompting portfolio shifts toward safety assets. |
