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Global macroeconomic data and policy developments intertwined, with uncertainty over UK fiscal policy weighing on the pound, while a modest rebound in the Chinese yuan bolstered sentiment across Asian markets. Precious metals, especially gold, maintained a steady upward trend supported by flight-to-safety demand and supply chain innovations. Advances in energy and semiconductor technologies alongside capacity expansions underpinned commodities and technology sectors. However, rising global bond yields remain a potential headwind.
Key Highlights: The pound briefly rallied to around 1.34 against the dollar but remained pressured by UK long-term bond yields climbing to a 27-year high. The Chinese yuan rebounded to 7.1468 against the dollar, ending its recent decline.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Pound pressured (negative); yuan rebound (positive) |
| Market Impact | Pound likely to experience heightened volatility; yuan shows signs of short-term stabilization |
| Core Logic | UK fiscal uncertainty pushed bond yields higher, pressuring pound; Chinese economic data and policies supported yuan recovery |
Key Highlights: European major indices broadly advanced, with France’s CAC40 gaining 1%. China’s A-shares traded sideways with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1%, led by strong performances in technology and new energy sectors.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | European equities strengthened (positive); selective sector adjustments in China (neutral to bearish) |
| Market Impact | Diverging risk appetite; European and US markets boosted by macro data and policy expectations; China focuses on volume and structural opportunities |
| Core Logic | Renewed European economic confidence lifted stocks; Chinese tech and new energy sectors continued attracting capital |
Key Highlights: UK August services PMI and composite PMI exceeded expectations, but delayed fiscal budget announcement raised concerns. US recession probability rose to 93%. China’s enterprise-level large AI model market experienced explosive growth.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | UK PMI data positive; budget delay and recession risk negative; US economic outlook uncertain; Chinese AI growth positive |
| Market Impact | Increased near-term volatility for pound and UK assets; pressure on US equities and global risk assets; potential boost for Chinese tech sector |
| Core Logic | Divergent data and policies prompted global asset reallocation; AI advancements accelerated China’s emerging industries |
Key Highlights: Gold prices hit new highs for three consecutive days amid strong order flow supporting bulls. Oil prices rose on supply concerns. Egg futures rebounded driven by seasonal demand.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strong demand for gold, oil, agricultural products (positive) |
| Market Impact | Flight-to-safety flows supported gold gains; broad commodity prices lifted by tight supply-demand dynamics |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical tensions and supply bottlenecks sustained precious metals and energy prices; seasonality boosted agricultural commodities |
Key Highlights: China held a military parade commemorating victory in World War II, signaling national strength and stability. Germany’s foreign minister called for removing trade barriers as Sino-Indian trade relations strengthened. US federal court upheld Trump-era tariffs but left policy unchanged.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strengthened China-India trade ties (positive); persistent trade barriers (neutral to negative) |
| Market Impact | Improved Asia-Pacific trade cooperation supports regional stability; ongoing global protectionism raises uncertainties |
| Core Logic | Political stability and trade collaboration foster regional growth; trade tensions remain a latent risk |
