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Global markets close 2025 on a cautiously optimistic note amid mixed equity performance and geopolitical tensions. Key drivers include China’s manufacturing rebound, export restrictions on silver, and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict dynamics influencing risk sentiment. Traders should focus on USD strength supported by Fed policy uncertainty, commodity supply constraints, and defensive positioning in equities ahead of 2026.
Key News Summary: China’s measured yuan appreciation at year-end contrasts with US dollar resilience amid Fed policy uncertainty. The yuan gains reflect controlled intervention as China beats growth targets but imposes export curbs on silver, adding supply-side pressure. USD remains supported by a divided Fed and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | USD Bullish; CNY mildly Bullish with controlled gains |
| Market Impact | USD strength likely to persist; CNY gains capped by export restrictions and geopolitical tensions |
| Core Logic | Fed’s split on rate cuts sustains USD; China’s economic data supports yuan but export curbs limit upside |
Key News Summary: European markets closed mixed on the last trading day of 2025 with defense stocks rising amid heightened geopolitical risks. US futures are flat as investors await clarity on Fed policy and 2026 outlook. Asian markets declined slightly reflecting cautious sentiment despite China’s PMI expansion.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed; Defensive sectors (defense, healthcare) bullish; Tech and discretionary cautious |
| Market Impact | Rotation into defensives amid geopolitical concerns; limited upside in growth sectors |
| Core Logic | Risk-off sentiment supports defense stocks; macro uncertainties cap broad market rallies |
Key News Summary: China’s manufacturing PMI expands for first time since March, signaling stabilization. US economy shows signs of acceleration with strong Q3 GDP growth. India imposes steel tariffs to protect local industry while China restricts silver exports mimicking rare earth controls, indicating rising resource nationalism.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed; Positive for Chinese growth outlook; Negative for global trade flows due to protectionism |
| Market Impact | Support for commodity prices; potential supply chain disruptions increasing inflationary pressures |
| Core Logic | Growth rebound in China balanced against rising trade barriers and resource export controls |
Key News Summary: Silver prices soar following China’s announcement of export restrictions, echoing rare earth metals strategy. Copper hits record highs driven by AI-related demand and supply fears. Gold capped strong 2025 performance as a safe haven amid global uncertainties.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Silver and Copper Bullish; Gold stable but supported |
| Market Impact | Precious metals rally on supply constraints; base metals buoyed by tech-driven demand |
| Core Logic | Export curbs tighten physical availability boosting prices; industrial demand underpinned by AI growth |
Important News Summary: Geopolitical tensions remain elevated with Russia-Ukraine exchanging strikes on Black Sea ports, complicating peace prospects. China continues military drills near Taiwan escalating regional risks. UAE withdraws troops from Yemen after Saudi-led airstrike strains alliance.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Risk-off environment maintains bullishness in safe havens (USD, Gold); bearish for risk assets |
| Market Impact | Heightened volatility expected in FX and equities; increased demand for defensive assets |
| Core Logic | Ongoing conflicts sustain uncertainty, driving safe-haven flows and defensive sector strength |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
