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Global markets close 2025 on mixed footing with cautious optimism for 2026. Key drivers include expectations of Fed rate cuts, China’s manufacturing rebound, and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Traders should watch USD volatility amid divergent monetary policy views, subdued precious metals due to margin hikes, and selective equity sector opportunities.
Key News Summary: USD shows mixed performance as markets price in potential three Fed rate cuts in H1 2026 amid a divided Fed. EUR faces pressure from Bulgaria’s euro adoption amid political instability. CNY supported by China’s manufacturing rebound and easing power costs.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | USD mixed; CNY bullish; EUR bearish |
| Market Impact | USD volatility to persist; CNY gains on recovery optimism; EUR pressured by political risks in Bulgaria |
| Core Logic | Divergent central bank outlooks fuel USD swings; China’s economic stabilization supports yuan; Eurozone political uncertainty weighs on EUR |
Key News Summary: S&P 500 closed lower Wednesday but posted a strong 16% gain for 2025, led by AI-driven tech stocks like Google. European markets ended mixed with defense stocks rising due to geopolitical risks. Insider buying in Nike signals confidence despite broader market caution.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | US equities cautiously bullish; European equities mixed with defensive tilt |
| Market Impact | Selective tech and defense sectors favored; broad market consolidation expected early 2026 |
| Core Logic | AI optimism drives tech gains; geopolitical tensions boost defense demand; profit-taking limits broad upside |
Key News Summary: China’s factory activity expands, ending the longest slump on record as power price cuts support industrial recovery. US economy expected to accelerate but inflation concerns linger. Fed minutes reveal internal split over December rate cut signaling uncertainty in monetary policy path.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | China macro bullish; US macro cautiously bullish but inflation risk persists |
| Market Impact | Improved Chinese growth supports global trade and risk assets; US policy uncertainty keeps volatility elevated |
| Core Logic | Policy easing and stimulus underpin China rebound; Fed’s cautious stance tempers aggressive tightening expectations |
Key News Summary: Gold and silver prices fall after CME raises precious metals margins again, dampening speculative interest. China plans to restrict silver exports, potentially tightening supply further in 2026. Oil prices stable amid balanced demand outlook.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Precious metals bearish short-term; silver supply concerns could provide medium-term support |
| Market Impact | Metals face headwinds from margin hikes but supply constraints may limit downside; oil steady without major shocks |
| Core Logic | Margin increases reduce leverage-driven buying in gold/silver; China export controls create supply tightness for silver |
Important News Summary: Swiss ski resort fire causes multiple fatalities, raising short-term risk sentiment concerns in Europe. Ukraine conflict continues with Russian advances but no decisive outcomes, sustaining defense sector interest. US grants TSMC license for chip tool exports to China easing some trade tensions.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Geopolitical risks remain elevated, bearish for risk sentiment but bullish for defense assets |
| Market Impact | Heightened geopolitical tensions support safe havens selectively and defense stocks while weighing on European risk appetite |
| Core Logic | Ongoing conflict and tragic incidents maintain cautious investor positioning; partial trade easing provides limited relief |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
