Trump ends Iran ceasefire; oil +6%, markets eye FOMC Minutes
As of 2026-07-08 17:01 SGT
Key points
- President Trump declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding "over" at the NATO summit in Ankara. U.S. forces struck more than 80 Iranian targets; Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Strait of Hormuz threat level was raised to "severe."
- WTI crude surged from the prior session's low of $68.58 to $74.56 (+5.85%), well above yesterday's intraday high of $72.51. Brent crude rose approximately 6.0% to $78.62. European equities weakened sharply (STOXX 600 -1.6%, DAX -2.0%), and U.S. equity futures are under pressure (Nasdaq 100 futures -1.14%).
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1,437 points (-2.11%) at 66,819, its third consecutive decline and lowest close in about a month, weighed by semiconductor names. The Korean KOSPI entered bear-market territory, down more than 23% from its June high.
- The Hang Seng gained 702.57 points (+2.99%) to close at 24,199, led by Alibaba (+12%) as funds rotated from Korean semiconductors into mainland China tech. Taiwan's Taiex added 0.56% to close at 45,734, supported by TSMC.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes are due at 14:00 ET today (02:00 SGT on 9 July) and will be closely watched for the depth of internal debate on further rate increases against a backdrop of renewed oil-driven inflation risk.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 162.48 | +0.23% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1412 | +0.03% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 66,819 | -2.11% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 24,199 | +2.99% |
| Dow futures | 52,605 | -1.11% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,490.25 | -0.81% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,056 | -1.14% |
| Gold futures | 4,075.80 | -1.96% |
| WTI crude | 74.56 | +5.85% |
| Bitcoin | 61,949 | -2.16% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.529% | +5.0bp |
Foreign exchange — Dollar supported by safe-haven flows, intervention risk caps topside
USD/JPY held near 162.48 (+0.23%), approaching the prior session's high of 162.50, as Middle East escalation drove safe-haven demand for the dollar. Vigilance over potential Japanese currency intervention continues to limit further upside. EUR/USD was broadly unchanged at 1.1412 (+0.03%), and the onshore yuan's 16:30 (Beijing) official close was 6.7993, its third consecutive session decline. Into the NY open, the combination of elevated oil prices and the pending FOMC Minutes is likely to sustain upward pressure on U.S. yields, keeping USD/JPY in its current range with a mild upside bias.
Equities — Asia mixed, Europe lower on Middle East risk
The Nikkei 225 fell 1,437 points (-2.11%) to 66,819, extending semiconductor-driven losses for a third consecutive session, while the Korean KOSPI entered bear-market territory more than 23% off its June high. In contrast, the Hang Seng gained 702.57 points (+2.99%) to 24,199, with Alibaba surging more than 12% as funds rotated from Korean tech into mainland China names; Taiwan's Taiex added 0.56% to 45,734, supported by TSMC. European equities extended their decline after Trump's ceasefire remarks, with the STOXX 600 down 1.6% and the DAX down 2.0%. U.S. futures are pointing to a softer open, driven by Middle East developments and the 14:00 ET FOMC Minutes release.
Macro — RBNZ's first rate hike in three years; Japan JGB yield at near 30-year high
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, its first increase in three years; Governor Breman noted that inflation may have already peaked. Japan's 10-year JGB yield rose to 2.87%, its highest level since approximately 1997, as surging oil prices raised domestic inflation expectations. FOMC Meeting Minutes from the June policy meeting are due at 14:00 ET (02:00 SGT on 9 July) and are expected to reveal the depth of debate on further rate increases. Any hawkish language in the Minutes could push U.S. yields higher tonight, reinforcing dollar strength and weighing on risk assets into the NY session.
Commodities — Oil surges on Iran ceasefire collapse; gold falls on higher yields
WTI crude surged from the prior day's low of $68.58 to $74.56 (+5.85%), breaking well above the prior day's high of $72.51, and Brent crude rose approximately 6.0% to $78.62. The crude forward curve reverted to backwardation, signaling renewed concern over near-term supply disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. Gold futures fell to $4,075.80 (-1.96%), breaking below the prior day's low of $4,107.20, as higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar offset the safe-haven bid. If Hormuz tensions continue to escalate into the NY session, WTI could extend its gains toward the upper $70s, adding upward pressure on inflation expectations.
Geopolitics — U.S.-Iran military conflict intensifies; Hormuz threat raised to severe
President Trump, speaking at the NATO Ankara summit on 8 July, declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire MoU "over," describing Iran as "dirty players" and engagement as a "waste of time." CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces had struck more than 80 Iranian targets; Iran subsequently announced retaliatory strikes against U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Washington simultaneously revoked the authorization allowing Iran to sell oil, tightening economic pressure alongside the military action. The Strait of Hormuz threat level was raised to "severe" following tanker attacks, and shipping traffic through the strait has declined. At the same NATO summit, Trump agreed to a $50 billion alliance defense procurement package but simultaneously threatened to cut off all trade with Spain, maintaining an unpredictable posture toward allies and adversaries alike. The primary overnight risk driver is further Hormuz escalation, which would sustain crude's rally and raise inflation risks across asset classes into the NY open.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 00:40 | CH | SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks | Signals on SNB rate path |
| 07/09 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Depth of debate on further rate increases |
| 07/09 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 218K) | Resilience of U.S. labor market |
| 07/10 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 11.2K) | Canada labor conditions |
| 07/10 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.6%) | Breadth of Canadian employment market |