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Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a 25-basis-point September rate cut, with expectations of further reductions in coming months, bolstered market bets on looser monetary policy. This drove the dollar index lower, while the offshore yuan surged past 7.12 against the dollar, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Gold prices breached $3,420, underpinned by safe-haven demand and increased ETF holdings. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Iran nuclear issue and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, remained potential market risks.
Key Highlights: Federal Reserve Governor Waller supported a 25-basis-point September rate cut, with further reductions expected in the next 3-6 months. The dollar index fell 0.43%; the offshore yuan broke 7.12 against the dollar, a 10-month high.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed cut bets bullish for yuan, non-USD; bearish for dollar. |
| Market Impact | Dollar weakness lifted non-USD currencies; yuan rebounded sharply. |
| Core Logic | Stronger cut bets curb dollar appeal; funds flow to EM, safe havens. |
Key Highlights: A-shares traded over 3 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, with technology stocks leading gains. Global sovereign funds increased A-share holdings, reflecting significant emerging market inflows. US major indices edged higher; the S&P 500 breached 6,500 points for the first time.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | EM, tech favored by funds; US equities rise, boosting risk appetite. |
| Market Impact | Boosts risk asset appeal; aids short-term positive equity market trend. |
| Core Logic | Global easing bets, EM shift drive equity demand. |
Key Highlights: China issued policy opinions to promote high-quality urban development. A Fed Governor stated potential inflation is near 2%, with weakening labor demand raising downside risks. The US ended its tax exemption policy for small import packages.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | China urban policy supports economy; Fed labor market warning negative. |
| Market Impact | US consumption may tighten from tariffs; medium-term inflation pressure persists. |
| Core Logic | Macro policies stabilize economy; US structural challenges limit growth. |
Key Highlights: Spot gold broke $3,420, reaching a five-week high, as SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose 5.44 tonnes. Silver ETF holdings also increased significantly. WTI crude oil edged up to $64.60 per barrel.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold/silver ETFs, safe-haven demand bullish; slight oil rise reflects supply/demand tweaks. |
| Market Impact | Precious metals gain from easing bets, geopolitical tensions; commodities stable. |
| Core Logic | Investors seek safe havens, diversification; supply limits support oil. |
Key Highlights: Iran's parliament plans to review a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to counter snapback sanctions. Europe proposed a disputed 40-kilometer Russia-Ukraine buffer zone. The Gaza conflict escalated, prompting a UN call for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Heightened geopolitical tensions pressure risk assets; bearish for overall risk appetite. |
| Market Impact | Rising safe-haven sentiment supports gold, yen, other traditional safe havens. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical uncertainty boosts volatility, increasing demand for safe assets. |
