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Persistent global geopolitical tensions, especially escalating Middle East conflict and the EU's firm stance on Ukraine, fueled safe-haven demand. Doubts over the Federal Reserve's independence, driven by political interference from former President Trump, heightened market uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy. This propelled gold to rebound short-term, nearing the $3,400 per ounce mark. Meanwhile, leaders from China and several Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) nations gathered at the Tianjin summit, focusing on regional cooperation and economic innovation, boosting related assets.
Key Highlights: The dollar faced political pressure amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve Governor Cook's tenure, continued pressure from Trump, and a federal court ruling that some of his tariff measures were illegal. The euro edged higher after the European Commission was accused of favoritism towards Ukraine. The Japanese yen came under slight pressure due to position adjustments.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | USD short-term pressure (negative); Euro modest positive; JPY volatility (neutral-to-negative) |
| Market Impact | USD may retreat vs. majors; non-USD currencies gain short-term support; volatility rises |
| Core Logic | Political interference weakens Fed independence; EU internal divisions impact Euro |
Key Highlights: Central Huijin's significant increase in equity ETF holdings boosted A-share confidence, with several brokerage firms reporting strong earnings growth. U.S. tech stocks declined on slowing AI demand and political risks, with overall U.S. equities coming under pressure. Chinese auto and AI sectors were active, and Xpeng Motors reported strong new car orders.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | A-shares positive; U.S. tech/high-valuation stocks pressured |
| Market Impact | A-shares see short-term inflows; U.S. tech sector volatility rises |
| Core Logic | State funds support A-share stability/rebound; global tech competition/policy uncertainty weigh on U.S. stocks |
Key Highlights: China promoted urban planning innovation, digital economy project matching, and new materials industry development. The SCO summit focused on regional cooperation and expanding a biodiversity fund. The U.S. economy faced risks of stagnant money supply, with August non-farm payrolls data drawing significant attention.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | China domestic demand/innovation positive; U.S.-China trade tensions/U.S. economic risks negative |
| Market Impact | China supply chain investment opportunities grow; U.S. data guides USD/risk assets |
| Core Logic | China policy stability provides long-term support; U.S. monetary policy/jobs data drive short-term sentiment |
Key Highlights: Gold prices neared a three-week high of $3,400 per ounce, boosted by doubts over Fed independence and geopolitical safe-haven demand. Crude oil retreated, pressured by limited supply concerns and an unclear demand outlook. Colombia's ban on coal exports to Israel exacerbated energy supply uncertainty.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold strongly positive; crude oil pressured (negative); tight coal supply offers potential support |
| Market Impact | Precious metals attract safe-haven bids; energy commodity volatility rises; monitor geopolitical shifts |
| Core Logic | Safe-haven sentiment drives gold strength; energy supply chain disruptions create price divergence/opportunities |
Key Highlights: Middle East conflict escalated as Israel struck Houthi leaders. The EU criticized the U.S. for rejecting Palestinian representation at the UN General Assembly. The assassination of Ukraine's former parliament speaker further complicated the situation. The SCO summit in Tianjin saw multiple leaders attend, strengthening regional cooperation.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Geopolitical risks significantly rise (negative for global risk assets); boosts safe-haven demand (positive for gold) |
| Market Impact | Global risk-off sentiment rises; oil/precious metals volatility increases; regional cooperation may ease uncertainty |
| Core Logic | Escalating conflict boosts safe-haven demand; multilateral cooperation supports medium-to-long term stability |
