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The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged to 89.6%, fueling expectations of looser monetary policy and pressuring the U.S. dollar. Both the euro and the pound sterling posted strong gains supported by European fiscal expansion. Persistent geopolitical tensions, including intensified conflicts in Syria and Sudan, boosted flight-to-safety demand, driving gold and silver prices to multi-year highs. Continued foreign capital inflows into Chinese technology stocks and Hong Kong equities suggest short-term upside for the Hang Seng Index and related ETFs.
Key Highlights: The dollar index declined modestly to 97.707, while the euro rose to 1.1708 against the dollar and the pound climbed to 1.3544. September Fed rate cut bets reached 89.6%. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed no concerns over the dollar’s exchange rate. The euro strengthened on the back of European fiscal stimulus.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut expectations weigh on dollar; benefit euro, pound |
| Market Impact | Dollar under pressure fuels euro, pound rebound; yen volatile; franc edges higher |
| Core Logic | Rate cut bets reduce dollar appeal; European fiscal stimulus supports euro; watch economic data for confirmation |
Key Highlights: Foreign institutions aggressively accumulated quality Hong Kong stocks, with Goldman Sachs raising its stake in BYD H-shares to 3.51%. China-focused ETFs saw accelerated inflows. A French government confidence vote may trigger cabinet reshuffle. Deutsche Bank was added to the Euro Stoxx 50 index.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Foreign buying supports Hong Kong stocks and Chinese tech; French political uncertainty raises short-term risk |
| Market Impact | Improved liquidity sustains rebound in Hang Seng and related ETFs; European defensive stocks attract attention |
| Core Logic | Foreign investors favor Chinese tech valuations amid fundamentals improvement; political events cause temporary volatility |
Key Highlights: China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.5, returning to expansion territory. The U.S. plans to declare a housing emergency to ease building material cost pressures. Early September open market operations see increased maturing funds but liquidity remains ample.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Improving Chinese manufacturing data supports risk assets; U.S. housing policy may ease inflation pressures |
| Market Impact | Manufacturing recovery underpins A-shares and emerging markets; U.S.-China policies boost select cyclicals |
| Core Logic | PMI expansion signals economic stabilization; U.S. tariff relief on materials helps contain inflation, stabilizing sentiment |
Key Highlights: Spot silver surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, while spot gold neared $3,490 per ounce. Brent crude oil rose nearly 1% as Syria resumed oil exports.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Surge in safe-haven demand boosts precious metals; rising oil prices support energy sector |
| Market Impact | Precious metals attract speculative interest amid strong bullish sentiment; energy assets gain from higher oil prices |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical tensions combined with Fed rate cut bets and inflation concerns enhance precious metals’ safe-haven appeal |
Key Highlights: Explosions intensified across multiple Syrian locations; Sudan’s landslide death toll may exceed 1,000. The U.S. Treasury Secretary reaffirmed support for Trump’s tariff policies and plans to appeal to the Supreme Court. Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates as Ukraine’s president prepares for talks with European leaders in Paris.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Escalating geopolitical conflicts increase safe-haven demand; potential energy supply threats support oil prices |
| Market Impact | Flight-to-safety flows lift gold and silver amid heightened risk sentiment; ongoing trade tensions pressure some commodity exports |
| Core Logic | Heightened geopolitical risks reinforce safe-haven demand; sustained U.S. trade policies add uncertainty, disrupting global capital flows |
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