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Global markets remained cautious as September Fed rate cut bets surged, boosting risk assets. However, rising U.S. long-term Treasury yields and pressure on the pound sparked safe-haven demand, lifting the dollar and gold. Technology shares rebounded after hours on positive antitrust rulings for Google, yet broader U.S. equities faced headwinds while Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East unrest, heightened volatility, pushing gold to record highs and attracting capital inflows.
Key Highlights: The dollar index rose 0.69%, while the euro and pound fell against the dollar. The pound came under notable pressure amid UK fiscal concerns and soaring bond yields. The Chinese yuan strengthened steadily on improving economic fundamentals and policy support, with investors targeting levels above 7.0. South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves increased to $416.29 billion.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar bullish; pound weak; yuan supported |
| Market Impact | Dollar gained vs major currencies; pound declined under pressure; yuan showed appreciation trend |
| Core Logic | Weaker Fed tightening expectations offset by rising long-term yields boosting dollar demand; UK fiscal uncertainty elevated bond yields weighing on pound; stable Chinese economy and policy backing bolstered yuan confidence |
Key Highlights: U.S. tech stocks rallied after hours following a favorable antitrust ruling for Google’s business structure. Nonetheless, U.S. indices closed lower for a second day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all falling more than 0.5%. The Hang Seng Index edged up 0.14%, while China’s STAR Market and ChiNext underperformed. Robotics and AI sectors attracted strong inflows.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Short-term boost for tech stocks; overall U.S. equities pressured |
| Market Impact | Google and Apple gained over 4% post-market; rising VIX dampened risk appetite; Hang Seng held up relatively well |
| Core Logic | Court ruling eased regulatory concerns lifting tech shares short term; macro risks and rate worries capped broader rebound |
Key Highlights: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September surged to 90.5%. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will begin interviewing Fed chair candidates this week. Eurozone inflation ticked up slightly but ECB officials expect rates to remain steady. Deteriorating UK fiscal conditions pushed long-term bond yields to a 27-year high.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed rate cut expectations support stimulus; UK fiscal risks heighten macro uncertainty |
| Market Impact | Rate cut bets bolstered risk assets; mid- to long-term bond market stress fueled safe-haven flows |
| Core Logic | Markets anticipate Fed easing amid slowing growth; UK fiscal strains triggered bond volatility and currency pressure |
Key Highlights: Spot gold reached a record high above $3,530 per ounce, with New York futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce. The world’s largest gold ETF saw its biggest inflow since 2022. Oil prices rose as WTI gained 2.47% to $65.59/barrel.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold and oil benefited from safe-haven demand and supply concerns |
| Market Impact | Significant gold ETF inflows lifted prices to new highs; oil climbed on supply uncertainties |
| Core Logic | Heightened geopolitical tensions fueled flight-to-safety flows supporting gold; supply risks underpinned oil prices |
Key Highlights: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called for Ukraine’s neutral non-aligned status and expressed hope for continued Russia-U.S. diplomatic talks. Israeli forces advanced in Gaza military operations. The Trump administration struck drug trafficking vessels in the southern Caribbean Sea killing 11 people. Trump urgently appealed to the Supreme Court over tariff rulings that could trigger trillions in refunds.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Escalating geopolitical tensions raised short-term market disruptions |
| Market Impact | Boosted gold and other safe-haven assets; increased market volatility; heightened risk-off sentiment likely constrained risk asset gains |
| Core Logic | Ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East hostilities sustained uncertainty; U.S. domestic legal issues added policy risk premium |
