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A September Fed rate cut is nearly certain as markets focus on Fed officials’ remarks and August U.S. employment data, while the dollar index rose modestly. International oil prices declined amid supply concerns, and although gold ETF holdings edged lower, bullish sentiment remained intact. Ongoing U.S.-China geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on risk appetite. Structural opportunities emerged in A-shares (mainland Chinese stocks), supported by favorable policy and funding conditions that underpin a positive medium-term outlook.
Key Highlights: The dollar index gained 0.21%, pressuring most major currencies against the dollar. September Fed rate cut bets reached 99.4%, with markets awaiting Fed officials’ speeches and U.S. nonfarm payroll data for direction.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar supported short-term; non-U.S. currencies under pressure |
| Market Impact | Dollar strengthened vs major currencies; yen, euro, pound weakened |
| Core Logic | Rate cut expectations boosted dollar appeal; economic data and speeches will guide next moves |
Key Highlights: The three major U.S. indices closed at record highs, led by strong gains in chipmakers and large tech stocks. A-shares experienced a sharp pullback but showed clear structural rallies, with brokerage revenues rising substantially.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | U.S. equities buoyed; A-shares faced short-term correction but remain positive medium-term |
| Market Impact | Active U.S. tech and chip sectors; divergent A-share performance with small caps bucking trend |
| Core Logic | Rate cut bets lifted U.S. risk assets; Chinese brokers benefited from higher trading activity |
Key Highlights: China’s August warehouse index fell to 49.3%, while commodity price indices rose for a fourth consecutive month. U.S. August employment data and supply chain pressure indices will be key market drivers.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Chinese demand shows short-term volatility; commodity prices remain firm; U.S. employment data critical for policy direction |
| Market Impact | Commodity prices support related assets; falling U.S. Treasury yields signal economic slowdown risks |
| Core Logic | Domestic demand restructuring amid external policy uncertainty; U.S. jobs data to shape global liquidity expectations |
Key Highlights: International oil prices fell nearly 1% on supply worries, while gold ETF holdings slightly declined but bullish sentiment persisted. China’s commodity price index rose 0.3% month-over-month.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Oil faced near-term headwinds; gold maintained bullish trend; commodity prices steadily increased |
| Market Impact | Energy assets pressured; precious metals supported by safe-haven flows and rate cut bets |
| Core Logic | OPEC+ supply concerns unsettled oil markets; gold benefited as a hedge and liquidity asset |
Key Highlights: Former President Trump signed an executive order implementing the U.S.-Japan trade agreement with tariff adjustments, prompting Japan to expand purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remained tense with troop buildups, while high-level China-North Korea talks reinforced regional political stability signals.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | U.S.-Japan trade pact boosts bilateral trade, supporting related sectors long-term; geopolitical risks continue to constrain risk appetite |
| Market Impact | Active trade and investment in Asia-Pacific support yen and regional equities; Russia-Ukraine tensions weigh on European risk assets |
| Core Logic | Rising geopolitical complexity fuels volatility; U.S.-Japan trade strengthens dollar zone demand; China-Russia-North Korea cooperation bolsters regional stability expectations |
