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Expectations for a September Fed rate cut surged to 92%, amid significant downside risks to U.S. employment data. Gold hit a record high on strong flight-to-safety demand. OPEC+ slowed production increases, stabilizing oil prices but supply overhang persists. The resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru triggered yen weakness, pushing USD/JPY above 148. Rising geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, added to market uncertainty.
Key Highlights: USD/JPY broke through 148, rising more than 0.6%, as the yen weakened due to Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation and political uncertainty. With a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, the dollar index rose modestly to 97.83.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Positive for USD; negative for JPY |
| Market Impact | Boosted USD vs major currencies; JPY under pressure; short-term volatility increased |
| Core Logic | Fed rate cut bets enhanced USD appeal; Japan’s political uncertainty weakened yen’s safe-haven role |
Key Highlights: U.S. stock futures opened slightly lower; quant-driven long equity strategies suffered notable August drawdowns; Hong Kong IPO activity remained robust with foreign capital favoring Chinese assets; Japan’s prime ministerial resignation raised fiscal expansion expectations, supporting the Nikkei 225.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Short-term pressure on U.S. equities; policy optimism lifted Hong Kong and Japanese stocks |
| Market Impact | Cautious sentiment weighed on U.S. stocks; rebound potential in Hong Kong and Nikkei indices |
| Core Logic | Weak U.S. economic data triggered profit-taking; Asia-Pacific policy support bolstered local markets |
Key Highlights: U.S. nonfarm payrolls expected to be revised down by 800,000 jobs, reinforcing Fed easing expectations; China’s central bank increased gold holdings for the tenth consecutive month, raising foreign reserves by 0.91%; Turkey’s GDP growth forecast cut to 3.8%.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Weak U.S. employment data hurt economic confidence; Fed easing boosted liquidity; China’s reserve and gold accumulation signaled macro stability |
| Market Impact | Heightened fears of U.S. slowdown drove safe-haven demand; Fed policy shift clarified |
| Core Logic | Employment revisions strengthened easing bets; China’s gold buying reflected global risk aversion |
Key Highlights: Spot gold surged past $3,590 per ounce to a record high; OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October but slowed pace amid year-end supply surplus concerns; WTI crude oil fluctuated lower to $61.64 per barrel.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold buoyed by strong safe-haven demand; oil pressured by supply glut concerns |
| Market Impact | Gold maintained strong momentum with upside potential; oil prices faced continued downward adjustment pressure |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical risks and Fed easing fueled gold gains; multiple factors constrained oil supply-demand balance improvements |
Key Highlights: Israel-Gaza conflict escalated with multiple attacks causing civilian casualties; former President Trump prepared second-phase sanctions on Russia; Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba announced resignation ahead of Liberal Democratic Party leadership election scheduled for early October.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Heightened geopolitical tensions increased global safe-haven demand (positive for gold, yen); Japan’s political changes raised regional uncertainty (negative for yen) |
| Market Impact | Rising risk aversion boosted precious metals and safety assets; regional currency volatility intensified |
| Core Logic | Middle East conflict and Russia sanctions elevated risk premiums; Japan’s unstable politics undermined currency stability |
