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Global markets enter year-end with cautious optimism as the S&P 500 posts a winning week near record highs amid subdued holiday liquidity. Key drivers include ongoing US-China trade tensions with China revising its foreign trade law, Russia extending gasoline export bans, and renewed geopolitical risks from intensified Ukraine conflict ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting. Commodities show divergent trends: gold gains on safe-haven demand while silver faces selling pressure; forex markets remain sensitive to risk sentiment and central bank outlooks.
Key News Summary: The US dollar capped its worst weekly performance since June amid mixed economic data and market focus on upcoming data releases. The Japanese yen remains weak, raising speculation of potential BoJ intervention. Emerging market currencies face headwinds from geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD bias short-term; Yen vulnerable to intervention; Emerging market FX pressured |
| Market Impact | USD weakness supports commodity currencies; Yen intervention risk adds volatility; EM FX under pressure |
| Core Logic | Dollar retreat reflects profit-taking and softer data; Japan’s weak yen invites central bank action; EM FX hurt by trade law changes and geopolitical risks |
Key News Summary: The S&P 500 closed little changed but posted a winning week with notable strength in tech stocks like Nvidia, supported by Morgan Stanley’s bullish outlook for 2026. However, Oracle shares are underperforming due to AI build-out concerns. UK stocks outperformed US equities in 2025, with expectations for further upside in 2026.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Moderately bullish US equities; UK equities show relative strength |
| Market Impact | Tech sector leads gains; selective weakness in AI-related names like Oracle |
| Core Logic | Positive sentiment fueled by strong earnings outlook and AI-driven growth tempered by company-specific risks |
Key News Summary: China’s industrial profits declined in November reflecting cooling demand, while China revised its foreign trade law to protect national interests amid ongoing US trade pressures. Russia extended its gasoline export ban through February, tightening global energy supply concerns. US economic growth remains robust but affordability issues persist domestically.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed—China’s slowdown bearish for global growth; US growth supportive but inflation concerns linger |
| Market Impact | Chinese industrial weakness weighs on Asia-Pacific markets; energy supply constraints support commodity prices |
| Core Logic | Trade policy shifts and geopolitical risks create uncertainty; US growth offsets some global weakness |
Key News Summary: Gold prices hit fresh highs driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment. Silver is advised to be sold in favor of gold due to relative weakness. Energy markets face supply constraints as Russia extends export bans, supporting oil prices.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish gold and oil; bearish silver short-term |
| Market Impact | Gold rallies on risk aversion; oil supported by Russian export ban extension; silver under pressure |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical uncertainty fuels gold demand; energy tightness sustains oil prices; silver’s industrial demand softness weighs |
Important News Summary: Russia intensified drone and missile attacks on Kyiv ahead of the scheduled Trump-Zelensky peace talks, signaling continued conflict escalation. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a second ceasefire after weeks of border fighting. Israel officially recognized Somaliland, marking a significant diplomatic development.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Heightened geopolitical risk—bearish for risk assets, bullish for safe havens |
| Market Impact | Increased volatility expected around Ukraine peace talks; regional ceasefires ease localized tensions |
| Core Logic | Military escalations increase risk aversion driving safe-haven flows; diplomatic moves add complexity |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
