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Global markets closed 2025 on mixed notes with strong equity gains led by tech and defense sectors, while precious metals retreated amid rising CME margin requirements. China’s manufacturing expansion and easing power costs support a positive macroeconomic outlook, contrasting geopolitical tensions including Russia’s internal military issues and U.S.-Venezuela friction. The key trading focus remains on risk-on equities supported by AI momentum, cautious commodity positioning due to margin hikes, and forex sensitivity to China’s recovery versus geopolitical risks.
Key News Summary:
China’s manufacturing PMI expanded for the first time since March, boosting sentiment for the yuan. Bulgaria joined the eurozone amid domestic political turmoil, adding complexity to EUR dynamics. The U.S. dollar faces pressure from expectations of Fed rate cuts in H1 2026.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish CNY on manufacturing rebound; bearish USD on potential Fed cuts; mixed EUR due to Bulgaria’s political risks |
| Market Impact | CNY likely to strengthen short-term; USD may weaken on rate cut bets; EUR volatility expected around Bulgaria developments |
| Core Logic | Economic recovery in China supports yuan; Fed policy divergence weighs on USD; political instability caps euro upside |
Key News Summary:
The S&P 500 ended 2025 with a 16% gain despite a late dip; tech giants like Google posted their best year since 2009 driven by AI enthusiasm. European banks had a strong 2025 but face uncertainty in 2026. Defense stocks rose amid geopolitical tensions.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish tech and defense sectors; cautious financials due to regulatory and economic questions |
| Market Impact | Continued rotation into AI-driven tech and defense stocks; selective exposure advised in banking |
| Core Logic | AI innovation drives tech rally; geopolitical risks underpin defense demand; financials face macro/policy headwinds |
Key News Summary:
China’s factory activity growth ends the longest slump on record, supported by industrial power price cuts. U.S. mortgage rates hit 2025 lows, aiding housing momentum. Economist Mark Zandi forecasts three Fed rate cuts in early 2026, signaling easing monetary policy.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish China growth signals and U.S. easing prospects; cautious inflation outlook |
| Market Impact | Supports risk assets globally with cyclical recovery hopes; fixed income yields pressured downward |
| Core Logic | Manufacturing rebound plus monetary easing expectations underpin growth optimism and risk appetite |
Key News Summary:
Gold and silver prices fell following CME’s repeated increases in margin requirements, dampening speculative positions. China plans to restrict silver exports akin to rare earth controls, potentially tightening supply. Copper prices remain elevated on industrial demand.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish gold/silver short-term due to margin hikes; bullish silver medium-term from export restrictions; bullish copper on demand fundamentals |
| Market Impact | Precious metals pressured by cost of carry increases; supply constraints support silver prices |
| Core Logic | Margin hikes reduce leverage/speculative flows in metals; Chinese export controls tighten supply balance |
Important News Summary:
Russia faces internal military abuses exposed through leaked complaints, undermining war effort credibility. U.S.-Venezuela tensions rise with increased detentions amid ongoing sanctions campaign. Bulgaria adopts the euro despite political unrest fueled by Russian-backed disinformation.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish Russian stability impacting risk sentiment regionally; mixed EU cohesion outlook due to Bulgaria issues |
| Market Impact | Heightened geopolitical risk premium supports safe havens intermittently but also fuels defense sector strength |
| Core Logic | Internal Russian military strife undermines conflict stability; EU enlargement challenged by politics |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
