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The U.S. dollar is under pressure amid escalating political risks from the DOJ’s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, fueling safe-haven demand for gold which hit a new record above $4,600/oz. Despite this, U.S. equities reached record highs as investors look past Fed independence concerns, supported by optimism on tech sector AI advancements and strong earnings. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Venezuela, and U.S. tariff threats add to market volatility, reinforcing cautious trading around risk assets and commodities.
Key News Summary: The DOJ’s subpoena of Fed Chair Powell and ongoing political interference fears have weakened the USD, while Trump’s tariffs on countries doing business with Iran add further uncertainty. Safe-haven flows are benefiting gold and select currencies like JPY. The Philippine peso remains weak due to local economic factors.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD; Bullish Gold; Mixed FX (JPY safe haven strength vs. emerging market pressure) |
| Market Impact | USD selling pressure amid political risk; gold surges as a safe haven; emerging markets mixed |
| Core Logic | Political risk undermines confidence in USD; gold benefits from safe-haven demand; tariff risks add FX volatility |
Key News Summary: U.S. stock indices (S&P 500, Dow) hit record closes despite Fed probe uncertainty, driven by strong tech sector momentum including Apple-Google AI collaboration and Alphabet’s $4 trillion market cap milestone. Financials face headwinds from Trump’s proposed credit card rate caps.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish Tech/Indices; Bearish Financials |
| Market Impact | Tech stocks rally on AI optimism; financials pressured by regulatory/tariff concerns |
| Core Logic | Innovation-driven growth offsets macro/political risks; regulatory threats cap financial upside |
Key News Summary: The Powell investigation raises concerns over Fed independence with potential implications for monetary policy credibility. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain steady in the Eurozone and India sees rising consumer inflation. New Zealand shows improving business confidence following rate cuts.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish Fed credibility; Mixed inflation outlook globally |
| Market Impact | Uncertainty may delay or complicate Fed policy decisions; inflation data supports cautious stance |
| Core Logic | Political interference risks undermine central bank autonomy impacting rate path clarity |
Key News Summary: Gold hits a record high above $4,600/oz driven by geopolitical tensions and Fed probe fears. Oil markets remain volatile amid Trump’s threats against Exxon in Venezuela and ongoing supply glut concerns from U.S. frackers.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish Gold; Bearish Oil (due to supply glut concerns) |
| Market Impact | Safe-haven demand lifts precious metals sharply; oil pressured by geopolitical uncertainty |
| Core Logic | Risk-off environment favors gold; oil faces downward pressure from oversupply and sanctions |
Important News Summary: Heightened geopolitical tensions with Iran signaling readiness for war but openness to negotiation amid protests; U.S. military action considered. Venezuela remains unstable post-U.S. raid on Maduro with slow political prisoner releases. Greenland independence sentiment grows amid U.S. takeover talks.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish Global stability; Bullish Safe havens |
| Market Impact | Increased geopolitical risk drives safe-haven flows and market volatility |
| Core Logic | Military tensions and regional instability elevate risk premiums across asset classes |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
