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The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs, invalidating a key protectionist policy and triggering an immediate rally in U.S. and European equities alongside a dip in the U.S. dollar. President Trump responded by announcing plans for new 10% global tariffs, injecting short-term policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, especially amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions with potential limited military action looming. Meanwhile, U.S. Q4 GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, reinforcing cautious macroeconomic sentiment and supporting cautious positioning ahead of key earnings and geopolitical developments.
Key News Summary: The Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs weakens the USD as trade tensions ease temporarily; however, Trump's announcement of new tariffs and escalating Iran tensions sustain volatility. The dollar trimmed gains after a strong week but remains sensitive to geopolitical risk and Fed outlook amid slower GDP growth.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD bias short-term due to tariff ruling easing trade concerns; cautious on geopolitical risk spikes. |
| Market Impact | USD weakness on tariff ruling; intermittent strength on safe-haven bids from Iran tensions; elevated volatility expected. |
| Core Logic | Tariff removal reduces trade friction premium on USD; renewed tariff threats and Middle East risks create oscillating flows. |
Key News Summary: U.S. and European equities rallied post-tariff ruling, with S&P 500 up and Dow gaining 200 points; e-commerce and tech stocks like Amazon and Etsy surged on tariff relief. However, uncertainty persists due to Trump's retaliatory tariff plans and looming Iran conflict risks.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish near-term on tariff relief; mixed medium-term due to policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks. |
| Market Impact | Immediate equity gains led by consumer discretionary and tech sectors; defensive sectors watch geopolitical developments closely. |
| Core Logic | Removal of tariffs lowers cost pressures for companies; renewed trade tension fears cap upside; Iran risk fuels safe-haven rotation intermittently. |
Key News Summary: U.S. Q4 GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, missing estimates amid government shutdown effects; inflation remains sticky around 3%. The Supreme Court ruling may trigger $175 billion in tariff refunds, affecting fiscal outlooks, while Fed officials signal unchanged monetary policy stance if tariffs are replaced one-for-one.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish growth signals with inflation persistence; neutral Fed outlook assuming tariff replacement parity. |
| Market Impact | Slower growth tempers rate cut expectations; potential fiscal impact from tariff refunds adds uncertainty to economic projections. |
| Core Logic | Growth slowdown limits risk appetite; inflation stickiness maintains hawkish tilt despite softer activity; fiscal effects from refunds weigh on budget forecasts. |
Key News Summary: Oil prices remain stable but elevated amid Trump’s consideration of limited military strikes on Iran, raising supply disruption fears at the Strait of Hormuz. Gold demand is supported by rising geopolitical risk, while Congo central bank's gold purchases indicate continued strategic reserve accumulation.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish oil on Middle East conflict risk; bullish gold on safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty. |
| Market Impact | Oil prices steady near recent highs due to supply risk premium; gold supported by geopolitical jitters and reserve buying activity. |
| Core Logic | Potential Iran conflict threatens supply routes; investors seek protection via gold amid macro-political uncertainties. |
Important News Summary: Heightened U.S.-Iran tensions with Trump contemplating military action increase regional instability risks, impacting energy markets and global risk sentiment. Additionally, the Supreme Court tariff decision is welcomed internationally but complicates global trade dynamics as the U.S. seeks alternative protectionist measures.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish global risk sentiment from Iran tensions offset by positive trade environment from tariff ruling (conditional). |
| Market Impact | Increased volatility across markets tied to Middle East risks; international trade partners cautiously optimistic but wary of new U.S. trade policies. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical flashpoints heighten market risk premiums; legal invalidation of tariffs reduces systemic trade barriers but triggers policy uncertainty cycles globally. |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
