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The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s broad tariff authority, triggering uncertainty and potential $170+ billion refund liabilities, while Trump immediately raised global tariffs to 15% under a different legal mechanism. This judicial setback weakens the US trade leverage, causing short-term volatility in FX and equities, with markets cautiously pricing in policy shifts. Heightened US-Iran tensions and geopolitical risks are driving oil prices higher, supporting safe-haven demand for gold amid increased market risk aversion.
Key News Summary: The Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariff powers weakens the USD’s policy support; Trump’s swift tariff hike to 15% adds policy unpredictability. Rising US-Iran tensions increase geopolitical risk premium.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD bias; bullish JPY and CHF as safe havens; cautious EMFX due to trade uncertainty |
| Market Impact | USD weakness on reduced tariff enforcement credibility; safe-haven flows into JPY/CHF; commodity currencies pressured by trade risks |
| Core Logic | Tariff ruling undermines US protectionism narrative, reducing USD support; geopolitical risks boost demand for safe assets and increase FX volatility |
Key News Summary: US equities rallied post-tariff ruling relief but face headwinds from renewed tariff hikes and Iran conflict threats; tech stocks mixed amid AI investment optimism.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed but cautious bullish tilt overall; defensive sectors favored amid geopolitical concerns |
| Market Impact | Short-term relief rally on tariff ruling offset by uncertainty over new tariffs and Middle East risks; volatility expected near Nvidia earnings |
| Core Logic | Tariff rollback seen as positive for global trade but immediate tariff hike and conflict fears cap upside, favoring selective stock picks |
Key News Summary: US Q4 GDP growth missed expectations at 1.4%, inflation remains sticky at ~3%; UK shows fragile recovery with inflation easing to 3%, raising rate cut prospects.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Neutral-to-bearish US growth outlook; cautiously bullish UK economic sentiment |
| Market Impact | Slower US growth may delay Fed tightening or prompt dovish pivot; UK inflation drop supports BoE easing bets |
| Core Logic | Growth-inflation divergence complicates central bank policy paths, increasing market sensitivity to data surprises |
Key News Summary: Oil prices rise sharply on escalating US-Iran tensions amid fears of supply disruptions via Strait of Hormuz; gold benefits from safe-haven demand.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish oil and gold in near term due to geopolitical risk premium |
| Market Impact | Higher oil prices pressure energy-importing economies and markets; gold rallies as risk-off asset amid uncertainty |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical risks elevate supply disruption fears, driving commodity price spikes and increased market volatility |
Important News Summary: Heightened Middle East tensions after Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon raise conflict escalation risks; Trump considers limited military action against Iran. India pushes AI investments signaling tech sovereignty ambitions.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish global risk sentiment due to Middle East instability; cautiously bullish India tech sector long term |
| Market Impact | Increased geopolitical risk drives capital flows into safe havens, disrupts energy markets, complicates global trade outlooks |
| Core Logic | Military escalation threats increase uncertainty premiums across markets while India’s AI push signals structural growth opportunities |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
