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The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs as illegal, triggering market relief and uncertainty over refund liabilities and future trade policy. Trump immediately announced a tariff hike to 15% using alternative authority, keeping trade tensions elevated. Concurrently, geopolitical risks persist with looming US-Iran talks amid military buildup, while Mexico’s cartel crackdown supports regional risk sentiment.
Key News Summary: The US dollar trades within a narrow range amid tariff uncertainty following the Supreme Court ruling; geopolitical tensions with Iran add risk premium. The dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows but faces pressure from trade policy ambiguity.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed/Neutral to Slight Bearish on USD |
| Market Impact | USD volatility rises; cautious trading with potential downside if tariffs escalate or Iran conflict intensifies |
| Core Logic | Legal invalidation of tariffs weakens USD support but Trump's immediate tariff hike sustains risk premium |
Key News Summary: Stocks rallied after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, lifting pressure on corporate earnings; however, concerns remain over renewed tariffs and geopolitical risks. Tech sector shows mixed performance amid regulatory probes and AI investment optimism.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish near-term but cautious |
| Market Impact | Relief rally post-tariff ruling; watch for volatility from new tariff announcements and Iran tensions |
| Core Logic | Removal of tariff drag supports equities; uncertainty on refunds and policy keeps traders alert |
Key News Summary: The Supreme Court ruling injects uncertainty into US trade policy and economic outlook as businesses seek clarity on refunds and import costs. US economic growth slowed in Q4 2025 amid government shutdowns; inflation remains a concern with wage pressures rising.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Neutral to Bearish |
| Market Impact | Trade policy uncertainty weighs on business investment decisions; inflation/wage dynamics remain key focus |
| Core Logic | Legal setback for tariffs disrupts trade framework; economic growth tempered by political factors |
Key News Summary: Oil prices rise on fears of possible US military strikes on Iran amid ongoing tensions; gold benefits from safe-haven demand. Other commodities see limited impact from tariff news but remain sensitive to geopolitical developments.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish for oil and gold |
| Market Impact | Elevated oil prices due to Middle East risk; gold supported by risk aversion |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical risk premium drives commodity strength despite tariff-related economic uncertainties |
Important News Summary: Mexico kills top cartel leader “El Mencho,” improving regional security sentiment. US-Iran diplomatic talks scheduled in Geneva aim to de-escalate conflict amid military posturing. Controversy arises from US ambassador’s pro-Israel territorial remarks, increasing Middle East tensions.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed |
| Market Impact | Mexican security improvement positive for emerging markets; Middle East tensions elevate risk appetite volatility |
| Core Logic | Regional security gains offset by heightened geopolitical risks impacting global markets |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
