Samsung Earnings Miss and Iran Strikes Spike Oil Above $72
As of 2026-07-08 07:00 SGT
Key points
- Samsung's Q2 preliminary operating profit jumped roughly 18x year on year but fell short of the market's lofty AI expectations, sending Samsung shares down about 7%, KOSPI down roughly 6%, and dragging global chip stocks sharply lower
- The Dow closed at 52,925 (-0.24%, -130 pts), the Nasdaq fell roughly 1%, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sold off broadly
- Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. revoked its Iran oil-sales waiver and launched punitive strikes described as 4-5x larger than those conducted ten days ago — "not a proportional response"
- WTI crude surged to $72.47 (+2.88%), well above Tuesday's session range of $67.82-$69.21; the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.529% (+5.0bp) on oil-driven inflation concerns
- Today: RBNZ rate decision (expected +25bp to 2.50%); FOMC minutes (Jun 16-17 meeting) due at 02:00 SGT Thursday
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 162.17 | +0.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1410 | -0.32% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 68,257 | -2.12% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,497 | -0.51% |
| Dow futures | 53,172 | -0.05% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,547.00 | -0.06% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,390 | -0.00% |
| Gold futures | 4,107.80 | -1.19% |
| WTI crude | 72.47 | +2.88% |
| Bitcoin | 63,520 | -0.75% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.529% | +5.0bp |
Foreign exchange — Dollar holds at 162 on Hormuz haven demand
USD/JPY sits at 162.17 (+0.06%), closing Tuesday at the top of its 161.69-162.17 range. Haven demand driven by the Strait of Hormuz escalation is keeping the yen under pressure near 40-year lows, even as Japan's intervention-watch threshold remains in focus. EUR/USD slipped to 1.1410, below Tuesday's 1.1423-1.1447 range, as Middle East risk revived dollar demand and weighed on risk sentiment. Japan's government is reportedly considering revising monetary-policy language in its annual economic policy blueprint ("honebuto") to clarify it is not pressuring the Bank of Japan — the revision had limited market impact. With the dollar underpinned by safe-haven flows ahead of tonight's FOMC minutes, USD/JPY is likely to remain heavy above 162 through the Asian session.
Equities — Samsung shock ripples through chip stocks; Asian open set for further losses
Tuesday's Wall Street session ended in the red as Samsung Electronics' second-quarter preliminary operating profit — roughly 18x higher year on year — disappointed investors who had priced in even higher AI demand. Samsung shares fell about 7% and KOSPI tumbled roughly 6%, with selling spreading across global semiconductor names. The Dow closed at 52,925 (-0.24%, -130 pts) and the Nasdaq fell approximately 1%. Nikkei 225 already logged a 2.12% loss Tuesday, closing at 68,257, and Chicago Nikkei futures are pointing to a further decline of roughly 650 points from Osaka's prior close (Chicago print: 67,770). Hang Seng closed at 23,497 (-0.51%). Asian markets are pre-open as of this writing (07:00 SGT) and are positioned for a risk-off open when they begin trading. This morning's open across Asia faces chip-sector selling pressure and oil-driven inflation concerns as the two dominant headwinds; Tokyo's semiconductor-heavy names are particularly exposed.
Macro — Oil shock revives rate hike risk; CME prices 73% chance of Fed hold in July
WTI's surge to $72.47 pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up 5.0bp to 4.529% — its highest in about a month — as energy-price inflation fears re-emerged. CME FedWatch now prices a 73.3% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with a 26.7% probability of a 25bp hike, reflecting oil-driven hawkish repricing. The FOMC minutes from the June 16-17 meeting are due at 02:00 SGT on Thursday; investors will scrutinize the committee's inflation language and the pace of future rate increases. New York Fed President Williams reportedly said he is "more optimistic" on inflation coming down as oil retreated — though that commentary predated the latest Hormuz escalation. U.S. May trade deficit reportedly widened to its largest level in over a year on a broad-based import surge. Markets are likely to stay cautious ahead of tonight's FOMC minutes, with the Hormuz oil shock the key variable in determining whether the rate-hike cycle re-accelerates.
Commodities — WTI surges to $72.47; gold falls on dollar strength
WTI crude jumped to $72.47 (+2.88%) after Iran attacked three Hormuz commercial vessels and U.S. CENTCOM launched punitive strikes, citing Iranian aggression as "unjustified, extremely dangerous, and a flagrant violation of the ceasefire." The U.S. also revoked Iran's oil-sales general license, further tightening supply fears. WTI moved well above Tuesday's session range of $67.82-$69.21 as the news broke after NY hours. Gold futures fell to $4,107.80 (-1.19%), retreating sharply from Tuesday's high of $4,199.70, as the stronger dollar and higher yields outweighed any geopolitical bid. WTI has structural downside support as long as Strait of Hormuz transit risk persists; gold faces headwinds from dollar strength ahead of tonight's FOMC minutes.
Geopolitics — U.S. launches punitive Iran strikes 4-5x larger than those ten days ago
Iran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz using a route designated as protected by the U.S. Navy. U.S. CENTCOM announced it had "begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran," targeting air-defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, and drone launch sites. A U.S. official said the scale and intensity of this round were 4-5x that of strikes conducted ten days ago, described as punitive rather than proportional, and said the action "will not end quickly." The U.S. Treasury revoked the general license allowing Iran oil sales, with wind-down transactions permitted until midnight ET on July 17. Iran condemned the action as a violation of the Islamabad memorandum. At the NATO Ankara summit, Trump expressed frustration with the alliance while signaling willingness to sell Turkey F-35s and lift sanctions. French President Macron was visiting Syria and was unharmed after explosions near his hotel in Damascus. A prolonged Hormuz escalation poses a structural upside risk to oil prices and keeps inflation and monetary-policy expectations in flux.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 10:00 | NZ | Official Cash Rate (forecast 2.50%) | First RBNZ hike after three consecutive pauses; forward guidance is key |
| 07/08 11:00 | NZ | RBNZ Press Conference | Rate-path signals; NZD likely volatile |
| 07/09 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Jun 16-17 meeting; inflation language and hike-path discussion in focus |
| 07/09 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 218K) | Labor market resilience check |
| 07/10 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 11.2K) | Canadian jobs data; key for BOC rate expectations |