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Key Summary Global markets saw improved risk appetite, with equities and commodities broadly rebounding, fueled by expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. However, geopolitical tensions and U.S. government stakes in companies introduced uncertainty. The dollar index weakened in the short term, while the pound held above the key 1.35 level and the Australian dollar stabilized. Crude oil gained on supply concerns, and gold fluctuated at elevated levels, with focus on future policy and international developments.
Major News and Market Impact
Key Highlights: Fed Chair Powell hinted at September rate cuts, driving the dollar index lower to around 97.7; the pound against the dollar held the 1.35 level; the Australian dollar stabilized and rebounded around 0.65.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Fed dovish outlook bearish for USD; bullish for GBP, AUD. |
| Market Impact | USD pressure may spark short-term non-USD rebound; GBP, AUD benefit. |
| Core Logic | Rate cut bets weaken USD appeal; boost risk appetite for high-yield FX. |
Key Highlights: Chinese property stocks surged on new Shanghai home purchase stimulus; tech stocks like Nvidia saw target price upgrades; U.S. markets fluctuated on Intel deal news and Powell's remarks; European equities mostly closed lower.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | China property policy bullish for sector; U.S. tech valuations diverge. |
| Market Impact | A-shares rally boosts risk appetite; U.S. stocks mixed; Europe pressured. |
| Core Logic | Policy stimulus, earnings outlook support China; Fed, corporate news weigh on US/EU. |
Key Highlights: Barclays warned the U.S. economy entered stagnation, raising recession risk to 50%; French Prime Minister sought a confidence vote amid economic challenges; India's credit rating remained stable.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Weak U.S. outlook bearish for risk assets; French political uncertainty pressures EU; India rating stable. |
| Market Impact | Global flight-to-safety may strengthen; supporting USD, JPY. |
| Core Logic | Slowing growth, political risks drive volatility; asset repricing. |
Key Highlights: WTI crude extended gains to 2% on heightened supply risks; spot gold fluctuated around $3,370 per ounce, eyeing a break above $3,500; potash added to critical minerals list, boosting related fertilizer stocks.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Oil supply fears bullish for prices; gold bullish but short-term resistance; potash policy boosts related stocks. |
| Market Impact | Rising energy prices lift inflation bets; commodities benefit from safe-haven, policy. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical, supply tensions support prices; policy drives specific mineral demand. |
Key Highlights: U.S. President Trump repeatedly highlighted good talks with Russia's Putin but cut Ukraine funding, sparking geopolitical uncertainty; Israeli strikes on Yemen's capital caused civilian casualties, escalating Middle East tensions.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Geopolitical tensions boost safe-haven demand for gold, JPY. |
| Market Impact | Investor caution rises; may cap further risk asset gains. |
| Core Logic | Escalating conflicts increase market volatility; strengthen safe-haven allocation. |
