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Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook weighed on the dollar, fueling September rate cut expectations and pushing gold prices to a two-week high. Conflicting signals emerged from the U.S. economy, with signs of overheating juxtaposed against declining consumer confidence. Oil prices retreated amid demand concerns and geopolitical influences. Global equities generally came under pressure, with European financial sectors performing weakly and tech stocks facing short-term adjustment pressure.
Key Highlights: Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook weakened the dollar. The euro against the dollar saw increased volatility, while the dollar against the yen retreated to around 147.31.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Negative for USD; positive for non-dollar currencies (EUR, JPY). |
| Market Impact | Dollar Index fell 0.28%; EUR/USD rose 0.31%; USD/JPY dropped 0.32%. |
| Core Logic | Fed personnel change raises policy uncertainty; early rate cut bets weigh on USD; safe-haven demand boosts JPY. |
Key Highlights: Strong earnings from Canadian banks boosted the financial sector. U.S. tech stocks came under short-term pressure, with Adobe shares falling after Google Gemini's upgrade. European equities closed lower across the board.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Canadian bank earnings positive for financials; tech stocks face competition pressure; European equities negative. |
| Market Impact | U.S. stocks mixed, Nasdaq adjusted; European indices fell 0.35-1.7%; HK tech/financials weak. |
| Core Logic | Solid bank earnings ease some risk-off pressure; geopolitics/policy uncertainty curb sentiment; tech faces valuation pressure. |
Key Highlights: The U.S. bond market signaled an overheating economy. U.S. consumer confidence edged lower due to employment and income concerns. Morgan Stanley projected the Fed would begin rate cuts in September.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Mixed short-term macro data creates uncertainty; rate cut expectations positive for risk assets, gold. |
| Market Impact | Flatter/inverted yield curve boosts safe-haven demand; rising U.S. Treasury bid-to-cover shows strong demand. |
| Core Logic | Overheating economy vs. falling confidence; personnel changes; Fed dovish shift boosts gold, non-USD appeal. |
Key Highlights: Gold prices rose to a two-week high. WTI and Brent crude oil both fell by about 2%. Palm oil extended its decline.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold positive (stronger safe-haven demand); crude/palm oil weak on demand concerns, export curbs. |
| Market Impact | Gold rose 0.54% to $3,436/ounce; WTI crude fell 2.07%; palm oil dropped nearly 0.5%. |
| Core Logic | Weaker USD, policy uncertainty boost gold's safe-haven appeal; energy prices volatile amid supply risks vs. slowing demand. |
Key Highlights: Trump pushed for the formation of National Guard "quick reaction forces." The U.S. pledged air and intelligence support for Ukraine's post-war forces. U.S.-China trade tensions remained high.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Heightened geopolitical tensions lower global risk appetite; support safe-haven assets. |
| Market Impact | Rising safe-haven sentiment boosts gold, JPY; curbs risk asset performance. |
| Core Logic | Increased military deployment, Ukraine aid show ongoing geopolitical risks; boost short-term market volatility, safe-haven demand. |
