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Key Summary U.S. July PCE inflation data met expectations, reinforcing September Fed rate cut bets, which drove the dollar lower and gold prices sharply higher above $3,440 per ounce. Canada's Q2 GDP unexpectedly declined, weighing on the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD poised to test key resistance. Ongoing geopolitical tensions from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine impacted energy market volatility, limiting crude oil gains and warranting caution.
Major News and Market Impact
Key Highlights: The U.S. July PCE price index rose 2.6% year-over-year, with core inflation edging slightly higher, fueling expectations for Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, Canada's Q2 GDP fell 1.6% year-over-year, as economic weakness dragged the Canadian dollar lower.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar pressured short-term (negative); CAD weakens on soft data (negative) |
| Market Impact | Dollar weighed on vs. majors; USD/CAD eyes 1.3778; NZD/USD gained 1.4% |
| Core Logic | Fed cut bets pressure dollar; weak Canadian economy hurts CAD |
Key Highlights: China's BYD reported a Q2 profit decline, reflecting a slowdown in the domestic auto market. U.S. long-term equity funds saw net outflows exceeding $350 billion in July, as investors shifted to bonds and money market funds for safety.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | BYD profit decline pressures China stocks; U.S. equity outflows signal risk-off |
| Market Impact | China stocks mixed; EV sector pressured; U.S. stocks adjust; tech outflows |
| Core Logic | Weak demand, competition hurt earnings; U.S. equity shift to bonds/MMFs |
Key Highlights: The U.S. Q3 GDP growth forecast was upgraded from 2.2% to 3.5%. Germany's August inflation rate rose above expectations to 2.1%. India's Q2 economic growth of 7.8% exceeded forecasts.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strong India growth boosts EM confidence; German inflation adds ECB uncertainty |
| Market Impact | EM currencies/assets benefit; Eurozone assets more volatile; ECB policy outlook cautious |
| Core Logic | Divergent global economies; strong EM supports risk assets; Eurozone inflation constrains easing |
Key Highlights: Spot gold breached $3,440 per ounce, marking its best monthly performance in four months. WTI crude oil retreated near $64/barrel, pressured by stalled Russia-Ukraine talks and increased supply. Silver broke through the $40 mark.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold/silver supported by cut bets, weaker dollar; Oil gains limited by supply, geopolitics |
| Market Impact | Precious metals attract safe-haven buying; commodities diverge; energy volatility, capped gains |
| Core Logic | Fed rate cut bets boost precious metals; energy supply, geopolitics key oil variables |
Key Highlights: Poland's consulate in Russia's Kaliningrad ceased operations, deepening Eastern European tensions. Turkey fully severed trade ties with Israel, escalating Middle East tensions. The U.S. canceled nearly $5 billion in foreign aid.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Escalating geopolitics boost safe-haven demand; Regional trade disruptions raise supply uncertainty |
| Market Impact | Safe-haven assets favored; commodity prices volatile; risk appetite suppressed, assets pull back |
| Core Logic | Ongoing geopolitical conflicts drive safe-haven demand; global growth impact warrants risk focus |
