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Key Summary Global markets are currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. The dollar saw volatile performance, while gold neared critical $3,400 resistance on renewed safe-haven demand. The EU strongly criticized the U.S. for denying a visa to a Palestinian representative for the UN General Assembly, highlighting the complex international landscape and heightening market risk aversion. China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit fostered regional cooperation and digital economy development, offering some short-term support for risk assets.
Major News and Market Impact
Key Highlights: The dollar's volatility increased amid the ongoing dispute between Trump and the Federal Reserve, coupled with U.S. political uncertainty. The euro remained firm on better-than-expected EU economic data and comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. The Japanese yen edged lower due to position adjustments and a rebound in the dollar.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar pressured short-term, but retains defensive appeal; Euro supported by economic data; Yen under pressure. |
| Market Impact | Dollar volatility against majors increases short-term trading; Eurozone currencies remain relatively strong. |
| Core Logic | Fed policy uncertainty, Trump intervention drive dollar volatility; ECB cautious stance supports euro stability. |
Key Highlights: Central Huijin's significant increase in stock ETF holdings boosted A-shares (mainland Chinese stocks) confidence, with China's tech and consumer sectors performing actively. U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, edged lower amid slowing AI demand and persistent geopolitical risks.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | China A-shares gain from state-backed fund support, bullish; U.S. stocks face growth sector pressure, bearish. |
| Market Impact | A-shares may extend rebound; tech, consumer sectors gain focus; U.S. stocks face correction risk. |
| Core Logic | State funds stabilize market expectations; U.S. tech valuation pressure; macro uncertainty constraints. |
Key Highlights: China advanced urban planning innovation and digital economy development, while the SCO summit strengthened regional cooperation. A slowing U.S. money supply fueled recession fears, and Trump's political maneuvers heightened policy risks.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | China macro policy supports high-quality regional growth, bullish; U.S. monetary tightening risk negative. |
| Market Impact | Asian emerging markets gain from policy, long-term growth potential; U.S. economy nears tipping point, spurs safe-haven demand. |
| Core Logic | China structural reforms boost domestic demand, innovation; U.S. monetary policy divergence heightens global liquidity swings. |
Key Highlights: Gold prices fluctuated near a three-week high, bolstered by increased safe-haven demand and bullish technicals. Crude oil traded sideways amid supply-side conflicts and an unclear demand outlook. Heilongjiang's abundant crystalline graphite resources drew attention to the non-ferrous metals sector.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold's safe-haven appeal strengthens, bullish; Crude oil volatility from supply risks, weak demand. |
| Market Impact | Gold shows clear bullish trend; watch $3,400 breakout; Crude trading cautious amid news-driven shocks. |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical tensions drive gold safe-haven buying; Non-ferrous resource advantage supports related commodities. |
Key Highlights: The EU criticized the U.S. for denying a visa to a Palestinian representative, escalating Middle East tensions. Russia continued its offensive in eastern Ukraine. Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen's Houthi rebels, killing a leader. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit strengthened multilateral cooperation.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Geopolitical tensions heighten global risk aversion, negative for risk assets. |
| Market Impact | Safe-haven assets (gold, yen) benefit; Mideast escalation risks energy volatility. |
| Core Logic | Ongoing geopolitical conflicts disrupt global sentiment; Multilateral cooperation efforts offer limited relief. |
