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Global markets remained cautious as the dollar index declined under pressure, while gold surged to a record high on rising flight-to-safety demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production weighed on oil prices, putting the energy sector under pressure amid expectations of higher supply. The Bank of England Governor downplayed risks from soaring long-term bond yields, but fiscal strains persist, fueling short-term volatility in the pound.
Key Highlights: The dollar index fell 0.36%, the euro rose modestly by 0.29%, and the pound advanced 0.46%. The yen continued to weaken, slipping below the 148 level. Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that the pace of quantitative tightening remains undecided, downplaying risks from the surge in 30-year bond yields. The Chinese yuan rebounded over three days, with markets focusing on factors supporting yuan appreciation.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar under short-term pressure bearish for USD; most non-U.S. currencies benefited; pound volatile amid central bank signals and political uncertainty; yen weakened due to political turmoil. |
| Market Impact | Near-term FX trading should focus on non-U.S. currency rebounds from dollar pullback and further yen depreciation risks. |
| Core Logic | Diverging expectations of Fed rate cuts and easing UK fiscal pressures drove flows into non-U.S. currencies and safe-haven assets; yuan appreciation supported by policy measures. |
Key Highlights: U.S. tech stocks rebounded strongly, with Alphabet gaining over 8% and Apple rising more than 4%. European major indices broadly advanced; France’s CAC40 climbed 0.86%. Chinese equities continued their recent correction; Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about longer-term upside despite near-term volatility. ConocoPhillips plans to cut 20-25% of its workforce, pressuring energy shares.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Tech sector gains boosted overall U.S. sentiment; energy shares pressured by OPEC+ output plans and layoffs; Chinese market faced short-term adjustment pressure. |
| Market Impact | Focus on short-term buying opportunities in U.S. tech stocks; caution advised in energy sector due to supply-driven price pressure; watch for capital outflows in China. |
| Core Logic | Innovation-driven tech valuation recovery supported by Fed easing bets; energy supply increases and cost-cutting weighed on prices and margins. |
Key Highlights: Canada’s labor productivity declined 1% in Q2, signaling weaker growth momentum. Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views on September rate cuts, with timing contingent on upcoming data. The UK Chancellor delayed the budget release amid ongoing fiscal strain.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Canadian productivity drop negative for growth outlook; Fed internal divisions raised rate cut uncertainty; UK fiscal tensions heightened market concerns. |
| Market Impact | Weak macro data limited risk asset upside; bond yields likely to remain volatile at elevated levels; policy divergence intensified FX fluctuations. |
| Core Logic | Slowing global growth coexists with expectations of policy easing, complicating economic outlook assessments. |
Key Highlights: OPEC+ considered another production increase at Sunday’s meeting, pushing oil prices down over 1%; WTI settled at $64.57/barrel. Gold hit a historic peak above $3,630 per ounce amid strong bullish sentiment. Industrial metals such as copper and coal retreated due to demand concerns.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | OPEC+ production boost bearish for oil prices; gold surged on robust safe-haven demand; industrial metals pressured by demand worries. |
| Market Impact | Oil faces near-term pressure but geopolitical and supply risks support medium-term outlook; gold offers structural buying value as a safe haven; cautious stance advised on industrial metals demand recovery signals. |
| Core Logic | Oil prices hit by supply increases but geopolitical tensions maintain a floor; gold rally driven by global uncertainties and Fed policy pivot expectations opening upside potential. |
Key Highlights: U.S. President Trump signaled intensified sanctions against Russia’s oil sector while reiterating criticism of Venezuela’s drug issues and boosting military presence in Poland. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine persisted ahead of planned multilateral talks in Paris.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Escalating sanctions and geopolitical conflicts fueled safe-haven flows benefiting gold and defensive assets; energy supply chains faced increased uncertainty impacting oil price volatility. |
| Market Impact | Heightened geopolitical risk drove flight-to-safety demand lifting gold and select defensive assets; oil prices pressured by output increases but vulnerable to disruption risks remain elevated. |
| Core Logic | Political-military tensions raised global risk premiums, boosting market risk aversion while complicating energy supply-demand dynamics. |
