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Global markets remained cautious as Federal Reserve Board nominee Michlin emphasized the independence of monetary policy, signaling uncertainty over future rate hikes. European and U.S. equities rose modestly, while Asian markets showed mixed performance. Gold pulled back near $3,400 per ounce, offering a buying opportunity for bulls. Upcoming crude inventory data will attract short-term attention.
Key Highlights:
The dollar stayed firm against major currencies after Fed nominee Michlin stressed independent judgment without pledging rate cuts. Border controls exerted disinflationary effects. The Chinese yuan continued to strengthen, while the yen fluctuated amid expectations of a U.S.-Japan tariff agreement.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Dollar supported; yen and some emerging currencies pressured |
| Market Impact | Dollar index held highs; yuan rebounded; yen volatile under pressure |
| Core Logic | Fed policy independence bolsters dollar; easing China-U.S. trade tensions support yuan; U.S.-Japan tariff talks weigh on yen |
Key Highlights:
Most major European and U.S. indices advanced, with Germany’s DAX 30 gaining 0.71% and the UK’s FTSE 100 rising 0.37%; France’s CAC 40 edged down 0.27%. Japan’s market fluctuated amid sustained foreign selling. Tech stocks diverged as Salesforce fell over 6% following weaker-than-expected guidance.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Europe positive; Japan and select tech stocks negative |
| Market Impact | European rebound lifted risk appetite; Japanese market under pressure |
| Core Logic | Stable European economic data and earnings support equities; foreign outflows and tech earnings concerns drag Japan |
Key Highlights:
U.S. third-quarter GDP growth forecast held at 3.0%, while weaker-than-expected ADP employment data indicated slowing job gains. Canada and the U.S. held technical talks on steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs seeking to ease trade tensions. China plans a CNY 1 trillion reverse repo operation to support liquidity.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Overall neutral to mildly positive |
| Market Impact | Supports risk assets; expectations of prolonged liquidity easing rise |
| Core Logic | Moderate U.S. growth offset by slower employment adds uncertainty; Canada-U.S. trade talks ease tensions; China adopts moderate monetary easing |
Key Highlights:
Gold ETFs attracted $5.5 billion amid strong Western buying despite Asian outflows, pushing gold prices down near $3,400 per ounce for a short-term correction. Baltic Dry Index edged up slightly, reflecting improved shipping demand ahead of crude inventory releases.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Gold positive; oil awaits data-driven volatility |
| Market Impact | Active gold positioning with dip entry points; oil focus on inventory and shipping cost changes |
| Core Logic | Global safe-haven flows and ETF demand underpin gold; rising freight rates indicate demand recovery but inventories remain key |
Key Highlights:
China-Pakistan deepened strategic cooperation strengthening BRICS unity against unilateral pressures. Tensions in Ukraine persisted as multiple countries pledged military aid. Fed nominee Michlin criticized politicization of climate issues, reaffirming policy independence.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Geopolitical risks neutral to slightly negative |
| Market Impact | Boosts safe-haven demand supporting gold; limits broad risk asset rallies |
| Core Logic | BRICS cooperation counters Western pressure; ongoing Ukraine conflict restrains global risk appetite |
