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US August nonfarm payrolls missed expectations sharply, with job growth of only 22,000 and the unemployment rate rising to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%. This fueled near-consensus bets on a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September. Gold surged to a record high, while the dollar index retreated significantly. Oil prices plunged amid OPEC+ production meeting expectations and global economic concerns. Equity markets showed mixed performance, with technology stocks under pressure but Chinese markets rallying strongly. Geopolitical tensions and shifts in global trade policies continued to weigh on risk appetite.
Key Highlights: US August nonfarm payrolls rose by only 22,000 versus expectations of 75,000; unemployment climbed to 4.3%, sharply boosting Fed rate cut bets. The dollar index fell 0.91%, while the yen, euro, and pound all rebounded.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Weak US jobs data pressured the dollar; boosted safe-haven currencies like the yen and gold-related currencies |
| Market Impact | Dollar index dropped to five-week low; broad non-dollar currency rebound; increased short-term volatility |
| Core Logic | Soft employment data reinforced rate cut expectations; dampened dollar bulls; shifted flows toward safe havens and high-yield currencies |
Key Highlights: Major US bank stocks fell over 2% following weak employment figures; Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan led declines. Meanwhile, Chinese A-shares (mainland Chinese stocks) and Hong Kong tech sectors rallied strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.24% and the Hang Seng Index gaining 1.43%.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | US banks dragged down by weak jobs data; Chinese tech and new energy sectors lifted by supportive policies |
| Market Impact | US equities faced short-term pressure; Chinese markets outperformed, boosting Asian risk sentiment |
| Core Logic | Heightened US growth concerns weighed on financials; eased Chinese property and clean energy policies supported domestic demand sectors |
Key Highlights: US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Federal Reserve’s reliance on “flawed models,” calling for a policy shift. Canada announced a C$5 billion fund to aid firms hit by tariffs and postponed electric vehicle targets. Shenzhen introduced relaxed housing purchase restrictions and eased public housing fund withdrawal rules.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Rising calls for US policy adjustment; Canadian fiscal support eases tariff impact; China’s housing policy loosening boosts demand |
| Market Impact | Strengthened global easing expectations; pressured US Treasury yields; lifted emerging market risk appetite |
| Core Logic | Policy coordination signals reinforced easing bets; helped ease economic slowdown fears despite near-term uncertainties |
Key Highlights: Gold hit a historic peak near $3,600 per ounce as safe-haven demand surged. WTI and Brent crude oil fell more than 3% and 2.8%, respectively, reaching multi-month lows amid Saudi-led OPEC+ plans to accelerate output increases.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Strong flight-to-safety flows supported gold; expected higher oil supply pressured prices |
| Market Impact | Precious metals attracted safe-haven funds; commodities diverged sharply; energy prices weakened |
| Core Logic | Weak jobs data sparked growth concerns lifting gold; OPEC+ production plans increased supply pressure on oil |
Key Highlights: Ukraine’s president vowed continued response to Russian energy attacks. Canada prepared new sanctions against Russia. The EU fined Google nearly €3 billion over advertising technology practices, heightening regulatory scrutiny on tech giants.
| Analysis Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Positive/Negative Catalysts | Escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven assets like gold; EU fine intensified regulatory pressure on tech stocks |
| Market Impact | Elevated flight-to-quality flows pushed precious metals higher while limiting gains in some tech sectors |
| Core Logic | Persistent geopolitical risks supported demand for safe havens; increased regulation capped growth stock valuations |
