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The Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea yielded a partial trade truce with tariff reductions and delayed rare earth export controls, easing some US-China tensions and supporting risk assets. The Fed cut rates again but signaled caution on further easing, reinforcing USD strength amid mixed global growth signals. Heightened AI spending pressures tech stocks like Meta while defense, gold, and rare earth sectors gain from geopolitical and trade developments.
Key News Summary: The USD rallied to its highest level since August on Fed’s cautious rate cuts; the Trump-Xi trade truce eased China-related trade tensions, temporarily supporting Asian currencies but weighing on Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar. Euro remained pressured as ECB held rates steady despite resilient eurozone growth.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | USD Bullish; CNY/HKD Bearish; EUR Neutral to Bearish |
| Market Impact | USD strength driven by Fed rate cut with hawkish tone; CNY/HKD pressured by muted Chinese concessions; EUR pressured by ECB pause despite growth |
| Core Logic | Fed’s cautious easing supports USD as safe haven; China’s limited trade concessions limit RMB upside; ECB hold signals moderate eurozone recovery |
Key News Summary: Meta shares plunged 10% on higher-than-expected AI spending overshadowing strong results, dragging S&P 500 lower while Dow gains on rotation away from tech. Alphabet soared post strong earnings with continued AI investment, reflecting divergent tech sector performance. Defensive sectors including defense and gold rallied post Trump-Xi meeting.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Tech Mixed (Meta Bearish, Alphabet Bullish); Defense & Gold Bullish |
| Market Impact | S&P 500 dragged down by Meta/MSFT; Dow gains due to sector rotation; defense/gold sectors rally |
| Core Logic | Elevated AI capex pressures weigh on some tech stocks; geopolitical easing boosts defense/gold demand |
Key News Summary: Fed cut rates for the second time this year but Powell flagged uncertainty on future easing; ECB held rates at 2%, citing economic resilience in the eurozone. US mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week, aiding housing market sentiment. Argentina plans liquidity boost via eased bank reserve rules amid political stability from recent elections.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | US Macro Neutral-Bullish; Eurozone Neutral; Emerging Markets Mixed |
| Market Impact | Fed rate cuts support US growth outlook but caution caps risk appetite; ECB steady rates reflect balanced eurozone outlook; Argentina reforms may ease EM pressure |
| Core Logic | Central banks balancing growth vs inflation risks amid uneven global recovery |
Key News Summary: Gold prices gained on increased geopolitical risks after Trump’s nuclear testing order and Sino-US tensions easing but still uncertain. Rare earth stocks rallied sharply as China delayed export controls for one year following the Trump-Xi deal. Oil giant Shell launched a $3.5bn buyback after beating profit estimates, signaling sector strength despite Saudi fiscal deficit widening.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Gold Bullish; Rare Earths Bullish; Oil Neutral-Bullish |
| Market Impact | Safe-haven demand lifts gold amid nuclear testing concerns; rare earths surge from China policy delay; oil supported by corporate buybacks despite fiscal headwinds in Saudi Arabia |
| Core Logic | Geopolitical risk premium sustains gold; strategic importance of rare earths underpins rally |
Important News Summary: The Trump-Xi summit produced a partial trade truce reducing tariffs (fentanyl tariffs cut to 10%) and delaying rare earth export curbs by China for one year, calming global trade fears temporarily. However, Trump’s directive to resume US nuclear weapons testing has raised geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia on alert. European elections saw centrist gains over far-right populists (Dutch elections), suggesting political stability in key regions.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Trade Truce Bullish for Global Risk Assets; Nuclear Testing Announcement Bearish for Risk |
| Market Impact | Trade détente supports equities/commodities linked to global growth; renewed nuclear threat elevates safe-haven demand and geopolitical risk premiums |
| Core Logic | Partial de-escalation of US-China trade war improves market sentiment but military escalation risks keep volatility elevated |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
