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Global markets enter year-end with subdued volume amid holiday-thinned trading. Key drivers include ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, cautious macroeconomic signals from China’s cooling demand and industrial profit decline, and continued strength in U.S. equities supported by AI sector optimism. Commodities show mixed signals: gold gains on safe-haven flows while silver faces selling pressure; energy markets remain tight due to Russia’s export ban extension.
Key News Summary: The U.S. dollar capped its worst week since June amid focus on upcoming economic data; the Japanese yen remains weak with potential BoJ intervention discussed; emerging market currencies face pressure amid trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks. China revises foreign trade law, signaling protectionist stance which may weigh on regional FX.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish USD bias short-term; cautious on Asian EM FX; Yen vulnerable but intervention possible |
| Market Impact | USD weakness could spur risk-on flows; Yen intervention talk caps downside; EM FX pressured |
| Core Logic | Dollar pullback reflects profit-taking and data anticipation; geopolitical risks elevate volatility |
Key News Summary: U.S. equities ended the week little changed after hitting fresh record highs, buoyed by AI-related tech stocks like Nvidia, which announced a $20B acquisition of Groq assets. However, some names like Oracle face pressure due to AI build-out concerns. European markets at a crossroads between AI competition and climate policy impact investor sentiment.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Moderately bullish on U.S. tech/Ai sectors; cautious in Europe due to regulatory/climate risks |
| Market Impact | Tech sector leads upside potential into 2026; rotation risk into value/defensive sectors |
| Core Logic | AI-driven M&A and earnings optimism support stocks; geopolitical and policy risks cap gains |
Key News Summary: China’s industrial profits declined in November reflecting cooling domestic demand; Russia extended gasoline export ban through February tightening global energy supply; US GDP growth surged unexpectedly to 4.3% in Q3 indicating resilient economy ahead of 2026.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Mixed—Bearish for China growth outlook, bullish for US economic resilience |
| Market Impact | Chinese slowdown pressures Asian equities/FX; US data supports risk assets; energy tightness fuels inflation concerns |
| Core Logic | Divergent growth signals create selective regional opportunities and risk management challenges |
Key News Summary: Gold hit fresh highs driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and cautious macro outlook; silver underperformed with calls to sell from analysts; Russia’s export ban extension keeps energy prices elevated despite global demand concerns.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bullish gold, bearish silver short-term, bullish oil/gas on supply constraints |
| Market Impact | Gold rallies as hedge against uncertainty; silver correction expected; energy prices remain firm |
| Core Logic | Safe-haven flows favor gold amid volatility; energy tightness sustained by Russian supply curbs |
Important News Summary: Russia intensified attacks on Kyiv ahead of Trump-Zelensky peace talks scheduled for Sunday, underscoring fragile ceasefire prospects. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a second ceasefire after weeks of border conflict easing regional tensions temporarily.
| Analysis Items | Analysis Content |
|---|---|
| Bullish/Bearish | Bearish for regional stability in Eastern Europe (Ukraine); modestly bullish for Southeast Asia |
| Market Impact | Heightened geopolitical risk boosts safe-haven assets (gold, JPY); Southeast Asia ceasefire improves local sentiment |
| Core Logic | Military escalation ahead of high-profile diplomacy increases market caution globally |
Disclaimer: This report is solely for information aggregation and market analysis and does not constitute any specific investment advice.
