Samsung profit shock fuels chip selloff; WTI rebounds to $70
As of 2026-07-08 00:00 SGT
Key points
- Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit surged roughly 19-fold year-on-year to a record high, but the stock fell more than 10% as investors judged the beat already priced in, sending shockwaves through global semiconductor names and pulling Japan's Nikkei 225 down 2.12% to a close of 68,257
- Iran reportedly struck a Qatari LNG tanker and multiple commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude surged from the prior-session settle of $68.55 to $70.50 (+2.84%), breaking above the prior day's high of $69.21 and reclaiming the $70 handle
- The NY Fed's June consumer survey showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.67% from 3.46%, the highest reading since September 2023, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up 3.8 basis points to 4.517%
- At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump expressed "disappointment" with allies' support for U.S. military operations against Iran and signaled he would lift sanctions on Turkey and allow its return to the F-35 program
- RBNZ rate decision is due today at 10:00 SGT (forecast 2.50%, on hold); FOMC meeting minutes follow on Jul 9 at 02:00 SGT
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 161.91 | -0.10% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1426 | -0.18% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 68,257 | -2.12% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,497 | -0.51% |
| Dow futures | 53,159 | -0.40% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,545.75 | -0.60% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,348 | -1.98% |
| Gold futures | 4,153.50 | -0.34% |
| WTI crude | 70.50 | +2.84% |
| Bitcoin | 63,916 | -0.13% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.517% | +3.8bp |
Foreign exchange — USD/JPY near 40-year highs, rangebound ahead of FOMC minutes
USD/JPY edged just 0.10% lower to 161.91, holding within the prior day's range of 161.66–162.18 and remaining near its highest levels in approximately 40 years. The combination of the U.S.–Japan rate differential and a firmer dollar driven by the Iran-led oil spike is keeping yen sellers in control, while the risk of Japanese government intervention continues to cap the upside near 162. EUR/USD slipped 0.18% to 1.1426, weighed by the risk-off tone across European equities and the latest Hormuz escalation. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.517%, with the 30-year trading above 5%, as the NY Fed's hotter-than-expected inflation expectations data reinforced a "higher-for-longer" read on Fed policy. Through the rest of the NY session, USD/JPY is likely to remain capped below 162 as intervention-watch sentiment lingers, with FOMC minutes on Jul 9 the next significant catalyst for a directional break.
Equities — Record Samsung profit sparks a global chip rout
A roughly 19-fold year-on-year jump in Samsung's Q2 operating profit — a record — proved insufficient for a market that had already priced in outperformance. Samsung shares fell more than 10%, dragging South Korea's index sharply lower and spreading selling pressure through every major semiconductor name. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.12% lower at 68,257, with Kioxia down more than 11%. In New York midday trade, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 7% and Intel dropped over 10%. The Dow opened around 225 points higher but has since pulled back in line with a nearly 2% slide in Nasdaq 100 futures as the chip-led selloff widened. SpaceX — joining the Nasdaq 100 index today — fell more than 5%; Rivian dropped more than 10% after announcing a 75-million-share equity offering. Nasdaq 100 futures extending their decline through the NY session's second half signals that semiconductor weakness remains the dominant theme heading into tomorrow's Asia open.
Macro — NY Fed inflation data keeps "higher for longer" on the table
The New York Fed's June consumer survey showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.67% from 3.46%, the highest since September 2023; three-year expectations also climbed to 3.3%, their highest since 2022. Consumers expect particularly sharp price gains in medical care (+9.4%), rent (+8.3%), and food (+5%) over the next year. The May U.S. trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion — the largest in more than a year — while the 52-week Treasury bill cleared at 3.860%. The data reinforce caution on rate cuts ahead of the FOMC minutes. The minutes release at 02:00 SGT on Jul 9 is the next macro flashpoint; any indication of a prolonged pause or further tightening bias would add to pressure on rate-sensitive equities and support the dollar.
Commodities — Hormuz attack drives WTI back above $70
WTI crude surged to $70.50 (+2.84%) from a prior-session settle of $68.55, breaking above the prior day's high of $69.21 after reports that Iranian forces struck a Qatari LNG tanker and additional commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar condemned the strike and said Iran bears full legal responsibility. Energy producers such as ExxonMobil rose more than 3%, while airline stocks fell sharply — Delta -2.3%, United -2.2%, JetBlue -4.1% — on fuel-cost concerns. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines reported that eight vessels under its management transited the Strait via a route closer to the Iranian coast. Gold futures eased 0.34% to $4,153.50, pulling back from the prior day's high of $4,199.70 as rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar weighed on the metal.
Geopolitics — NATO Ankara summit: Trump expresses disappointment as Hormuz tensions rise
At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump met with Turkish President Erdogan and told reporters he was "very disappointed" with NATO allies' limited support for U.S. military operations against Iran. He signaled he would lift sanctions on Turkey and support its reentry into the F-35 fighter jet program. Danish Prime Minister reaffirmed Greenland would not be sold to the United States. Ukrainian forces struck Russia's Omsk oil refinery — one of the country's largest — forcing a halt to processing operations; Ukraine's president said Siberia was now "within reach." French appeals court shortened the eligibility ban on Marine Le Pen, opening a path for her to run in the 2027 presidential election. U.K. Reform party leader Nigel Farage resigned his parliamentary seat to contest a by-election. French President Macron was unharmed after two blasts occurred near his hotel during an official visit to Damascus.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 10:00 | NZ | Official Cash Rate (forecast 2.50%) | High |
| 07/08 10:00 | NZ | RBNZ Rate Statement | High |
| 07/08 11:00 | NZ | RBNZ Press Conference | High |
| 07/09 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | High |
| 07/09 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 218K) | Medium |
| 07/10 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 11.2K) | High |