Dow Rebounds, Gold Tops $4,600 Ahead of Fed's Jackson Hole
As of 2026-08-24 00:00 SGT
Key points
- The Dow surged 517 points (53,277, +0.98%) on Friday, Aug 21, though CNBC notes the index posted back-to-back weekly losses
- Gold pushed back above $4,600 to hit three-month peaks, FXStreet reports, while WTI crude extended its advance amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz supply concerns
- USD/JPY trades little changed at 158.94 (-0.06%) and EUR/USD at 1.1678 (-0.03%) as the new week opens with no clear direction
- The US Treasury doubled the cap on its long-bond buyback operations to at least $4 billion per operation (effective Sept 9-Nov 4), yet CNBC says the "Bessent bond buyback rally" is fizzling as 30-year yields hold near 5.27%
- US-Canada trade talks collapsed over the weekend, with Ottawa readying retaliatory tariffs from Sept 8 in response to Trump's 50% tariffs, while Washington also preps tougher new sanctions on Iran
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.94 | -0.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1678 | -0.03% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 66,016 | -0.30% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 26,009 | +1.21% |
| Bitcoin | 77,175 | +0.13% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.738% | +4.2bp |
Foreign exchange — Quiet start to the week for majors
USD/JPY is little changed at 158.94 (-0.06%), holding within Friday's 159.12-158.38 range, while EUR/USD sits at 1.1678 (-0.03%). FXStreet notes EUR/USD is "treading water below 1.1700" after only a marginal rebound in the greenback, even as the 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.738% (+4.2bp). With Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut and the core PCE reading due this week, FXStreet frames the setup as a "soft US Dollar" being put to the test. Ahead of the Tokyo open, USD/JPY should stay confined to the upper-158s as traders wait on this week's Jackson Hole and PCE catalysts.
Equities — Friday's rebound doesn't erase a losing week
The Dow rallied 517 points (53,277, +0.98%) on Friday as investors bought back into beaten-down names, but CNBC's own recap flags "back-to-back weekly losses" for the index. ForexLive's technicians describe the Nasdaq and S&P as "settling between risk/bias defining" moving averages heading into next week. In Asia, the Nikkei closed down 0.30% at 66,016 while the Hang Seng finished the week firmer, up 1.21% at 26,009. FXStreet's weekly preview points to Nvidia's earnings alongside Jackson Hole as the two swing factors for equities this week. Into the rest of the NY session ahead, Nasdaq and S&P direction should hinge on how those moving-average bands resolve.
Macro — Treasury's buyback boost fails to cap long yields
The US Treasury moved to at least double its liquidity-support buyback operations in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors, lifting the per-operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion effective September 9 through November 4, FXStreet reports. Yet CNBC notes "longer-dated Treasury yields rise as Bessent's bond buyback rally fizzles out," with the 30-year yield near 5.27%. FXStreet's week-ahead preview flags Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut alongside Friday's stronger-than-expected US Services PMI as the catalysts likely to decide whether the soft-dollar, higher-yield mix persists. Through the rest of this week, long-end yields are likely to stay the dominant cross-asset driver until Jackson Hole delivers clarity.
Commodities — Gold holds three-month highs, crude extends gains
Leaving behind Thursday's "inconclusive price action," gold briefly surpassed $4,600 to hit three-month peaks on Friday, FXStreet reports, even as the dollar posted only marginal gains; gold futures now sit at $4,680.60, well above Friday's $4,486.00 low. WTI crude is similarly firm at $87.06, holding above Friday's $85.60 low even after slipping from the session's $89.00 high, with ForexLive citing ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions as the key support. Baker Hughes data cited by ForexLive shows the overall US rig count falling by 5 to 588, with oil rigs down 3 on the week. For the rest of the NY session, gold and oil should stay well-bid as long as Hormuz-related supply risk remains unresolved.
Geopolitics — Canada-US trade war erupts as Iran sanctions loom
Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed late Friday, and Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada is now "at war" with the US after Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian goods; Ottawa plans retaliatory tariffs starting September 8, the New York Times reports. Separately, CNBC reports Iran is slamming "extraterritorial sovereignty" ahead of tough new US sanctions, while a small UK power generator was shut down after a cyberattack linked to Iran, per the Telegraph via CNBC. Into the NY reopen this week, both the Canada tariff deadline and the new Iran sanctions rollout are event risks for risk sentiment and oil.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/25 02:00 | US | Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks | Watch for detail on the new Iran sanctions package |
| 08/26 09:30 | AU | CPI y/y (forecast 3.3%) | Guides AUD and RBA rate-path expectations |
| 08/26 20:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.2%) | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge |
| 08/26 20:30 | US | GDP q/q (forecast 1.5%) | Growth revision to shape rate-path bets |
| 08/28 22:00 | US | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks | Warsh's Jackson Hole speech debut |
| 08/29 00:15 | All | Jackson Hole Symposium | Global focus on the policy-path debate |