USD/JPY Steady at 159, Gold at 3-Month High, Oil Slips
As of 2026-08-25 00:00 SGT
Key points
- European benchmarks closed mixed on Monday while Wall Street sits mid-session (US noon ET): the S&P 500 is edging lower as a slide in chip stocks outweighs a decline in Treasury yields.
- USD/JPY is at 159.18, up a modest 0.15%, having cleared the prior session's 159.12 high (session low 158.38). EUR/USD drifted to 1.1669, down 0.08%.
- Gold futures climbed to $4,708.70 (+0.60%), their highest since May 15, as reports the Treasury may tap its General Account to fund bond buybacks fuel dollar-debasement chatter.
- WTI crude eased to $84.71 (-2.70%) as traders position ahead of Washington's promised "toughest ever" sanctions details on Iran.
- Asia's prior close was soft: the Nikkei 225 finished at 65,528 (-0.74%) and the Hang Seng at 25,517 (-1.89%), with Alibaba's $10.2 billion share placement weighing on Hong Kong sentiment.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 159.18 | +0.15% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1669 | -0.08% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 65,528 | -0.74% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 25,517 | -1.89% |
| Dow futures | 53,492 | +0.26% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,677.50 | -0.18% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,186 | -0.69% |
| Gold futures | 4,708.70 | +0.60% |
| WTI crude | 84.71 | -2.70% |
| Bitcoin | 79,136 | +1.81% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.696% | -4.2bp |
Foreign exchange — narrow range, rate-differential support versus dollar-debasement chatter
USD/JPY is at 159.18, up 0.15%, having cleared the prior session's 159.12 high (session low 158.38), with the US-Japan rate differential still lending support. That support is being tested by reports that the Treasury may draw on its General Account to help fund bond buybacks, a move traders read as a step toward easier financial conditions and a softer dollar over time. EUR/USD drifted to 1.1669, down a marginal 0.08%, pinned near the lower end of its 1.1712-1.1670 range. USD/JPY should stay confined to the low-159s through the rest of the NY session, with the broader bias unchanged.
Equities — Dow firm, chip weakness caps Nasdaq through the NY session
Wall Street is mid-session (noon ET) with the S&P 500 modestly lower as a slide in semiconductor names offsets a pullback in Treasury yields; chip stocks were down as much as 4% intraday. The Dow is holding roughly 95 points higher while the Nasdaq trades in negative territory, with investors trimming chip exposure ahead of this week's Nvidia earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium. Asia's prior close was equally soft: the Nikkei 225 ended at 65,528 (-0.74%) and the Hang Seng at 25,517 (-1.89%), pressured by Alibaba's $10.2 billion share placement to fund its AI buildout. Whether chip stocks stabilize into the NY close will set the tone heading into the Tokyo open.
Macro — bond-buyback speculation, rate relief, and a Fed-chair test at Jackson Hole
The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.696% (-4.2bp) after CNBC reported the Treasury could tap nearly $1 trillion sitting in its General Account to help fund its expanded buyback program. That comes into a data-heavy week: Wednesday brings core PCE and GDP, Thursday jobless claims, and Friday a closely watched Jackson Hole address from Fed chair nominee Warsh, alongside the preliminary benchmark payrolls revision. Positioning into today's Asia session should stay cautious ahead of that Jackson Hole test.
Commodities — gold at a three-month-plus high, oil softer ahead of sanctions detail
Gold futures rose to $4,708.70 (+0.60%), clearing the prior session's $4,624.10 high to reach their best level since May 15, with dollar-debasement concerns tied to the Treasury buyback story keeping buyers in control. WTI crude, by contrast, eased to $84.71 (-2.70%), slipping below the prior session's $85.80 low as traders position ahead of Washington's detailed Iran sanctions announcement rather than chase the headline risk. Gold's path into the NY close hinges on the dollar-debasement narrative, while oil watches for the scope of the Iran measures.
Geopolitics — Iran sanctions push and a widening Canada-China tariff front
Washington is preparing to unveil the details of new Iran sanctions, with Treasury Secretary Bessent vowing to "cut off every economic lifeline," while Tehran has warned it could target shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in response. Trade tensions are widening elsewhere too: President Trump said tariffs on Canadian autos and trucks will rise to 50% from January 1, 2027 after talks with Ottawa broke down, and Washington is reportedly preparing a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of next month's Trump-Xi summit. Into the Tokyo open, the scope of the Iran sanctions and the Canada-China tariff escalation remain the key risk-off swing factors.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/25 01:00 | US | Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks | Medium |
| 08/26 09:30 | AU | CPI y/y (forecast 3.3%) | High |
| 08/26 20:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.2%) | High |
| 08/26 20:30 | US | GDP q/q (forecast 1.5%) | High |
| 08/28 22:00 | US | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks | High |
| 08/29 00:15 | All | Jackson Hole Symposium | High |