Week Ahead: Jackson Hole, Core PCE and Nvidia in Focus
As of 2026-08-23 17:00 SGT
Key points
- The Dow jumped roughly 500 points in the week's final session (Aug. 21), but the Dow and the S&P 500 both still closed out a second straight losing week.
- The US Treasury doubled its bond-buyback capacity to at least $4 billion per operation for long-dated debt, effective Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, yet the 10-year yield still stood at 4.738% (+4.2bp); separately, Canada's Carney called the collapsed US-Canada trade talks a state of "war" on Aug. 22, with Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs due to start Sept. 8.
- Gold pushed to $4,680.60, clearing its 200-day moving average and the $4,600 mark for a fresh three-month high, while Bitcoin held near $76,454 after touching above $77,000 in the same session.
- Asia closed the week mixed: the Hang Seng added 1.21% to 26,009 after Alibaba unveiled a $10 billion Hong Kong share placement to fund AI spending, while the Nikkei 225 eased 0.30% to 66,016.
- Next week's calendar is loaded: the Aug. 28-30 Jackson Hole Symposium brings Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut address, alongside Nvidia's earnings and the Aug. 26 Core PCE print, all set against a USD/JPY technical band between 158.31 and 159.15 that frames Monday's open (Aug. 24).
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.94 | -0.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1678 | -0.03% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 66,016 | -0.30% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 26,009 | +1.21% |
| Bitcoin | 76,454 | -0.81% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.738% | +4.2bp |
Foreign exchange — USD/JPY and EUR/USD hold tight ranges into Monday's open
USD/JPY was little changed at 158.94 (-0.06%), sitting inside last week's 159.12-158.38 range and just above the 158.31 200-day moving average that technicians flagged as the pair's lower guardrail; a band between the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, near 159.04-159.15, caps the upside. EUR/USD was similarly flat at 1.1678 (-0.03%), still capped below the 1.1700 handle it failed to clear in the week's final session, within a 1.1712-1.1670 range. The Australian dollar was the week's standout mover, closing at its strongest level since early June, with a domestic CPI print due Aug. 26 the next catalyst. A break of either the 158.31 floor or the 159.04-159.15 ceiling looks more likely to emerge once Aug. 26's US data lands than at Monday's open itself.
Equities — Late-week bounce doesn't erase back-to-back losing weeks
The Dow's roughly 500-point advance in the week's final session couldn't offset a second consecutive weekly decline for both the Dow and the S&P 500. In Asia, the Hang Seng outperformed with a 1.21% gain to 26,009, helped by Alibaba's plan to raise $10 billion via a Hong Kong share placement to fund AI spending, while the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.30% to 66,016. Broadcom's debt deal, expected to reach as much as $70 billion according to sources, adds to the scale of capital the AI buildout is absorbing ahead of Nvidia's earnings next week. Nvidia's results and Jackson Hole are shaping up as the two swing factors for whether next week extends the late-week rebound or reopens the yield-driven pressure that weighed on stocks.
Macro — Jackson Hole, Core PCE and a payrolls revision headline a pivotal week
The Treasury's move to double its liquidity buyback cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation for 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year debt, effective Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, hasn't stopped yields from creeping higher: the 10-year sat at 4.738% (+4.2bp), underscoring doubts that the buyback alone can cap borrowing costs. Next week's docket is dense — Australia's CPI (Aug. 26, forecast +3.3% y/y), US Core PCE (Aug. 26, forecast +0.2% m/m) and GDP (Aug. 26, forecast +1.5% q/q), a preliminary benchmark payrolls revision (Aug. 28), and Canada's GDP (Aug. 28, forecast +0.2% m/m) arrive just as Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs on the US are set to take effect Sept. 8 following the collapse of trade talks. All of it builds toward Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut on Aug. 28. Between the Aug. 26 Core PCE print and Warsh's Aug. 28 address, next week carries the clearest read yet on whether the Fed's rate path shifts before September.
Commodities — Gold clears $4,600 and its 200-day average
Gold futures reached $4,680.60, having broken above the 200-day moving average near $4,501.12 and the 38.2% retracement level at $4,573.87 that technicians were watching, after topping the $4,600 mark for a three-month high in the week's final session — a move traders have framed alongside Bitcoin's advance as a debasement trade tied to the Treasury's buyback expansion. Bitcoin held near $76,454 (-0.81%) after touching above $77,000 in that same session; one technical setup flagged by ForexLive pointed to a potential bull-flag breakout toward $84,000-$86,000, though that requires a confirmed move to be validated rather than a given outcome. Gold holding above $4,600 into the new week would keep the debasement trade intact, while Bitcoin needs to clear $77,000 again before the $84,000-$86,000 scenario technicians are watching becomes more than a chart pattern.
Geopolitics — Iran sanctions and a fraying Canada-US trade truce add to next week's risk list
Iran on Aug. 22 criticized the "extraterritorial sovereignty" of tougher new US sanctions set to take effect, ahead of what President Trump has called an "economic D-Day" for Tehran; Iran's foreign minister separately played down Trump's economic threat, even as an official was reportedly quoted saying Iran is weighing oil-related strikes intended to pressure the Trump administration ahead of the US midterms. Elsewhere, Romania, a NATO member, scrambled F-16 fighter jets to down a drone near a critical European gas project, a reminder that the region's energy infrastructure remains exposed to spillover risk. On trade, Canada's Carney said on Aug. 22 that the country is "at war" with the US after talks collapsed, with Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs due to start Sept. 8. With those Canadian tariffs looming and Washington's next Iran sanctions still pending, headline risk stays elevated heading into the new week even before Jackson Hole speaks.
Upcoming events
Next week's docket is unusually heavy for a holiday-adjacent stretch, bracketed by the Aug. 26 US data batch and the Aug. 28-30 Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his debut address as chair on Aug. 28.
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/25 22:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence (forecast 90.3) | Medium |
| 08/26 09:30 | AU | CPI y/y (forecast 3.3%) | High |
| 08/26 20:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.2%) | High |
| 08/26 20:30 | US | GDP q/q (forecast 1.5%) | High |
| 08/28 22:00 | US | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks | High |
| 08/29 00:15 | All | Jackson Hole Symposium | High |