Yen Soft, Nikkei Fades as Oil Firms on Hormuz Tensions
As of 2026-10-07 12:00 SGT
Key points
- USD/JPY is firm at 158.42 (+0.21%), holding off its prior-day low of 158.03 as Tokyo afternoon flows keep the yen on the back foot.
- Asian equities are split: Nikkei 225 is down 0.73% intraday at 70,166 after fading from the morning's AI-chip-led run, while the Hang Seng holds up at 24,154 (+0.47%).
- WTI crude is back above $90 (90.19, +0.84%) as Saudi-Houthi attacks and a Gulf of Mexico storm stoke supply fears, while gold eases to $4,173.00 (-0.34%).
- US futures are little changed (Dow futures -0.07%, S&P 500 futures +0.08%, Nasdaq 100 futures -0.03%) after the S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time overnight.
- Japan's real wages rose 1.5% y/y in August, an eighth straight monthly gain, bolstering the case for further BOJ hikes.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.42 | +0.21% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1241 | -0.20% |
| Nikkei 225 (intraday) | 70,166 | -0.73% |
| Hang Seng (intraday) | 24,154 | +0.47% |
| Dow futures | 51,780 | -0.07% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,880.00 | +0.08% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,475 | -0.03% |
| Gold futures | 4,173.00 | -0.34% |
| WTI crude | 90.19 | +0.84% |
| Bitcoin | 84,137 | -1.65% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.269% | -4.2bp |
Foreign exchange — Yen stays soft
USD/JPY is trading at 158.42 (+0.21%), well off the prior session's low of 158.03 and within sight of the 158.51 high, with the dollar firming alongside yields ahead of tonight's FOMC minutes. EUR/USD is softer at 1.1241 (-0.20%), still sitting near multi-month lows built up on French fiscal and political jitters. The yen's heaviness looks set to persist for the rest of the Asian session.
Equities — Asia stocks mixed
The Nikkei 225 is down 0.73% intraday at 70,166, unable to keep pace with Wall Street's record run as traders book profits on the recent AI/chip-led surge amid lingering inflation concerns. The Hang Seng is bucking the softness, up 0.47% at 24,154, even with Stock Connect still shut through today. Overnight, the S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time, lifted by tech gains and cooler yields, and futures are now little changed. Into the European open, the contrast between a wobbly Nikkei and a firmer Hang Seng looks set to continue.
Macro — Data in focus
Japan's real wages rose 1.5% y/y in August, an eighth straight monthly gain even as it slowed from July's 2%, keeping the case for further Bank of Japan hikes intact. In the US, the August trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion, its widest since just before last year's tariffs took effect. Heading into tonight's NY open, the FOMC minutes are the next catalyst to watch.
Commodities — Oil firm, gold eases
WTI crude has climbed back above $90 (90.19, +0.84%) as Saudi-Houthi attacks and a Gulf of Mexico storm threatening US output add a fresh layer of supply risk on top of recovering Hormuz flows. Gold futures have eased to $4,173.00 (-0.34%) even as China extended its gold purchases to a 23rd straight month. Oil's firmness looks set to hold heading into tonight's NY open.
Geopolitics — Middle East tensions simmer
Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on three Saudi sites, including Riyadh's King Khalid airport, Abha airport and an air base at Khamis Mushait, though Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the claims. Separately, Hormuz tanker attacks have resumed even as crude flows through the strait have recovered to near 76% of prewar levels. Singapore's foreign minister said Trump "isn't completely wrong" that the Hormuz disruption is primarily Asia's problem.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 01:00 | US | President Trump Speaks | Watch for fresh remarks on trade or Middle East policy |
| 10/08 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Gauge how divided the Fed was on the pause |
| 10/08 16:30 | US | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Waller's policy tone after the minutes |
| 10/08 20:15 | UK | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | Could move GBP on hints of policy path |
| 10/08 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 200K) | Labor market health check |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 6.3K) | Key input for CAD direction |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | Early read on US consumer mood |