Nikkei steadies, mainland China sinks; USD/JPY firm at 158
As of 2026-10-09 12:00 SGT
Key points
- Nikkei 225 fell as much as 800 points at the open, pared the drop to -529 by the midday break (68,512) and is now down just -0.47% (68,716) as buyers stepped into non-AI names; SoftBank Group alone is subtracting roughly 243 points on OpenAI-revenue jitters.
- USD/JPY is holding firm at 158.05 (+0.16%), confined to the prior session's 158.14-157.75 range with little directional conviction.
- Mainland China reopened from Golden Week sharply lower — the Shanghai Composite fell 1.21% to 3,765.71 and ChiNext dropped 2.61% to break below 3,000 — as computing-hardware names (MLCC, PCB, CPO) were hit hard on OpenAI growth worries, while battery and silicone-chemical names rallied.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng reclaimed the 24,000 handle, now at 24,032 (-0.41%), led by banks, with northbound Stock Connect flows netting a HK$6.477bn inflow.
- WTI crude is pausing at $90.41 (-1.18%) as Trump's pledge not to strike Iran before the midterms offsets hurricane-driven Gulf supply risk; gold is firm near $4,200.80 (+1.05%).
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.05 | +0.16% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1230 | +0.12% |
| Nikkei 225 (intraday) | 68,716 | -0.47% |
| Hang Seng (intraday) | 24,032 | -0.41% |
| Dow futures | 51,583 | +0.17% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,836.50 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,092 | +0.40% |
| Gold futures | 4,200.80 | +1.05% |
| WTI crude | 90.41 | -1.18% |
| Bitcoin | 82,369 | +0.83% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.231% | -4.6bp |
Foreign exchange — Firm, rangebound
USD/JPY is pinned at 158.05, inside the prior session's 158.14 high and 157.75 low, with ForexLive's Asia desk flagging little directional conviction into the weekend. The pair is shrugging off the pullback in US 10-year yields to 5.231%, leaving yen buying limited for now. Through the rest of Asian hours, USD/JPY looks set to keep chopping around the 158 handle awaiting the next US-rate catalyst.
Equities — Nikkei steadies, mainland China sinks
The Nikkei opened down as much as 800 points on carry-over selling from the prior session's Wall Street AI-stock rout, narrowed the loss to -529 by the midday break, and is now off just -0.47% as non-AI names attracted bids; SoftBank Group alone is knocking roughly 243 points off the index on lingering OpenAI-revenue concerns. Mainland China's reopening from the Golden Week holiday went the other way — the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext both sold off sharply as computing-hardware supply-chain stocks were hammered, even as battery and silicone-chemical names rallied against the tape. Hong Kong's Hang Seng bucked the regional weakness, reclaiming 24,000 on bank-stock strength and a solid northbound inflow. Ahead of tonight's NY open, Asia's AI-adjacent names remain the swing factor for how the session closes out.
Macro — US yields steady, JGBs follow lower
US cash markets are shut for the session; the 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 5.231% (-4.6bp), having eased on strong demand at the prior session's 30-year auction. Japan's long bond yield has tracked the US move lower. France's bond-market stress remains a live risk for European credit. Ahead of tonight's NY open, Canadian employment data and the University of Michigan sentiment print (22:00 SGT) are the next catalysts for rates and the dollar.
Commodities — Oil pauses, gold firm
WTI is pausing at $90.41 (-1.18%), within the prior session's $90.98 high and $87.96 low, as Trump's pledge of no Iran strike before the midterms offsets hurricane-driven concern over Gulf output. Gold is holding firm near $4,200.80 (+1.05%), supported by the pullback in Treasury yields. Through the rest of Asian hours, oil looks capped near the highs but well supported on hurricane risk.
Geopolitics — Tension persists even as a strike is pushed past the midterms
Trump has said the US will not strike Iran before the November 3 midterm election, even as the Pentagon is reported to have readied a three-day strike plan targeting Iranian energy and missile sites. Houthi forces have struck Riyadh's airports for a third straight day, with Iran reportedly seeking to regain the initiative around the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury has sanctioned 17 more tankers tied to Iran's "shadow fleet." In the Gulf of Mexico, roughly 63% of oil output remains shut in ahead of an approaching hurricane. As long as the standoff over Hormuz continues, crude markets look set to stay on edge.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 6.1K) | Short-term read on CAD from Canadian labor data |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.5%) | Gauge of labor-market health |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | How far US consumer mood has deteriorated |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Inflation Expectations | Watch for a pickup that could feed Fed hike bets |