Futures Firm, Yen Flat, Gold Lags as FOMC Week Begins
As of 2026-10-26 12:00 SGT
Key points
- US equity futures are stabilizing after last week's S&P 500 losing streak: Dow futures +0.27% at 52,537, S&P 500 futures +0.11% at 7,668.50, Nasdaq 100 futures roughly flat (-0.08%) ahead of today's cash open.
- USD/JPY is little changed at 156.85 (+0.03%), inside Oct 23's 156.10-157.14 range as Tokyo's Nikkei trades through its afternoon session in a third straight down day.
- Gold futures are up 0.39% overnight to $4,023.50 but remain below Oct 23's low of $4,036.80, still digesting last week's slide under $4,000 ahead of this week's FOMC decision.
- WTI crude at $101.07 is down 2.13% on the session even as it holds above Oct 23's $100.17 high, with Saudi Arabia reporting an intercepted Houthi missile-and-drone attack keeping Middle East risk alive.
- Brazil's Lula won a historic runoff election as Bolsonaro reportedly refuses to concede, sending a Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF down nearly 15% and adding to a week already loaded with the FOMC, the BOJ, and Big Tech earnings.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 156.85 | +0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1225 | +0.19% |
| Nikkei 225 (intraday) | 62,412 | -0.45% |
| Hang Seng (intraday) | 23,196 | +0.44% |
| Dow futures | 52,537 | +0.27% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,668.50 | +0.11% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,096 | -0.08% |
| Gold futures | 4,023.50 | +0.39% |
| WTI crude | 101.07 | -2.13% |
| Bitcoin | 79,476 | -0.70% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.988% | +3.5bp |
Foreign exchange — yen flat, yuan pulling both ways
USD/JPY is little changed at 156.85 (+0.03%), sitting inside Oct 23's 156.10-157.14 range as Tokyo's afternoon session ticks along without fresh direction. The PBOC fixed today's USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7162, weaker than the 6.6691 Reuters estimate, even as ForexLive separately flagged the yuan touching a four-year high, with Goldman Sachs seeing scope for further gains toward 6.40. Governor Ueda's signal that the BOJ will hold at 1.25% at its Oct 29-30 meeting while still eyeing tightening toward neutral keeps intervention chatter subdued for now. With the pair range-bound and the yuan pulling in two directions, USD/JPY should stay anchored through the rest of Asia trading unless a fresh catalyst emerges.
Equities — Asia mixed, Wall Street futures steadier
Tokyo is in its third straight down session, with the Nikkei off 0.45% at 62,412 after chip and energy-sensitive names weighed on Iran-related oil worries; the afternoon session has reopened roughly flat versus the morning close. Hong Kong has bucked the weakness, with the Hang Seng up 0.44% at 23,196 heading into its midday pause, while Korean stocks led regional losses after Goldman Sachs slashed its Kospi target to 9,000 — still implying over 60% upside, Goldman says. Mainland A-shares are at their own midday break after an early session that broadly tracked the region's cautious tone. On Wall Street, futures point to a steadier open after last week's S&P 500 losing streak: Dow futures are up 0.27% at 52,537, S&P 500 futures up 0.11% at 7,668.50, and Nasdaq 100 futures roughly flat at 29,096 (-0.08%), with traders looking past the selloff toward this week's Big Tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. Equities should stay choppy through the rest of Asia trading as Tokyo and Seoul underperform while Hong Kong and US futures hold firmer footing.
Macro — Fed and BOJ loom large this week
This week's macro calendar is loaded: the BOJ holds its Oct 29-30 meeting with Governor Ueda already signalling more tightening toward neutral, while the Oct 28-29 FOMC decision and that same day's Core PCE inflation data will shape the Fed's next move. RBA's Hunter flagged a possible November hike after four moves so far, with the Oct 28 Australian CPI print as the next test, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has already ticked up 3.5bp to 4.988% in anticipation. Macro risk stays skewed toward volatility heading into tonight's NY open as traders position for the Fed.
Commodities — gold lags, oil holds its risk premium
Gold futures are up 0.39% overnight to $4,023.50 but remain below Oct 23's low of $4,036.80, still digesting last week's roughly 4% slide — gold's worst week in more than four months — that briefly pushed prices under $4,000; Saxo Bank flags trendline support near $3,985 against resistance at $4,060 and $4,230. WTI crude trades at $101.07, down 2.13% on the session yet still above Oct 23's $100.17 high, as oil fell in Asia on a lack of weekend escalation in the Iran conflict even though Saudi Arabia's interception of Houthi missiles and drones kept the supply-risk premium alive. With gold still undercutting Oct 23's low and oil holding its war premium, commodities should stay choppy through the rest of Asia trading ahead of this week's Fed decision.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles and drones launched by Iran-backed Houthi forces over the weekend, a reminder that risk hasn't faded even without a feared escalation; Trump separately said the US "may do another operation against Iran," while US embassies have tightened security as Iran-related threat warnings intensify. In France, protests over inequality and living costs turned violent again over the weekend, compounding a bond-market stress test in which French borrowing costs have overtaken US yields amid budget turmoil even as Moody's held the country's credit rating steady. In Latin America, Brazil's Lula won a historic runoff election — the first time since Brazil returned to direct elections in 1989 that a candidate has won the final round after losing the first — with Bolsonaro reportedly refusing to concede; a Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF tumbled nearly 15% on the result, and Goldman Sachs flagged an extreme scenario of USD/BRL rising 10% and Brazilian stocks falling 15%. These geopolitical threads should keep risk sentiment fragile as Europe opens later today.
Upcoming events
| Date/Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/28 08:30 | AU | CPI y/y (forecast 4.2%) | Sets the tone for whether the RBA needs to extend its tightening cycle |
| 10/28 09:00 | NZ | Official Cash Rate (forecast 3.00%) | RBNZ decision; markets will watch guidance beyond the headline rate |
| 10/28 20:30 | UK | Annual Budget Release | First look at the UK government's fiscal plans for the year ahead |
| 10/28 21:45 | CA | Overnight Rate (forecast 2.50%) | BOC rate call lands alongside its policy statement and press conference |
| 10/29 02:00 | US | Fed Funds Rate (forecast 4.00%) | The Fed's rate call for the week; forward guidance is the key swing factor |
| 10/29 20:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%) | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, landing later the same day as the rate decision |