BOJ Holds at 1.25%, Nikkei Slides, Binance Hack Jolts
As of 2026-10-30 12:00 SGT
Key points
- The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.5%. The BOJ said underlying inflation is now consistent with its 2% target for the first time since the target was set in 2013, lifted its FY2027 core CPI forecast to 2.6%, and will accelerate ETF sales to about ¥860 billion a year starting January 2027.
- USD/JPY firmed sharply on the decision, briefly dipping through the prior session's 157.61 low, before steadying; it last traded at 157.39, down 0.17% on the day, ahead of Governor Ueda's 2:30pm JST press conference.
- The Nikkei 225 extended its slide into the afternoon session on spillover from Intel's weak guidance and Amazon's negative free cash flow, down as much as 1,900-plus points intraday before paring the decline to 63,113, off 2.39%.
- Binance suspended withdrawals and pledged to cover losses after a suspected hack; Chainalysis estimated about $5.9 billion stolen, with $2.54 billion frozen so far.
- Hang Seng rebounded 1.08% to 23,345 even as Taiwan's benchmark slumped more than 1,600 points at the open, with TSMC also breaching its 200-day moving average.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 157.39 | -0.17% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1194 | +0.12% |
| Nikkei 225 (intraday) | 63,113 | -2.39% |
| Hang Seng (intraday) | 23,345 | +1.08% |
| Dow futures | 52,412 | -0.19% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,680.25 | -0.95% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 28,948 | -2.08% |
| Gold futures | 4,002.10 | -0.73% |
| WTI crude | 103.29 | +1.26% |
| Bitcoin | 77,967 | +0.23% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.989% | -5.6bp |
Foreign exchange — BOJ holds, yen steadies
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.5%. The BOJ said underlying inflation is now consistent with its 2% target for the first time since the target was set in 2013, lifted its FY2027 core CPI forecast, and said it will more than double the pace of ETF sales to about ¥860 billion a year starting January 2027. USD/JPY firmed sharply on the decision, briefly dipping through the prior session's 157.61 low, before steadying; it last traded at 157.39, down 0.17% on the day. The PBOC, meanwhile, set its USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7138, weaker than the 6.6548 Reuters estimate. Through the rest of the Asia session and into the European open, USD/JPY looks likely to stay confined to the upper-157s pending Governor Ueda's 2:30pm JST press conference.
Equities — Tokyo underperforms on chip rout
Tokyo stocks extended their slide into the afternoon session, spilling over from the prior session's after-hours earnings shocks: Intel slumped as much as 21% on weak PC demand guidance, while Amazon's free cash flow turned negative as AI capex ramps up. The Nikkei 225 was down as much as 1,900-plus points intraday before paring the decline to 63,113, off 2.39%. Hang Seng, by contrast, rebounded 1.08% to 23,345, while Taiwan's benchmark slumped more than 1,600 points at the open with both the index and TSMC breaching their 200-day moving averages. For the rest of the Asia session, chip-sensitive Tokyo names look set to stay under pressure while Hang Seng's rebound, underpinned by individual gainers, should hold.
Macro — BOJ declares 2% target met
Markets were pricing about an 80% chance of a December BOJ hike heading into the decision, a figure likely to firm further given today's hawkish tilt. The move comes against the backdrop of the UK's Autumn Budget, in which Chancellor Healey raised taxes on banks and landlords to fund £100 cost-of-living payments to 20 million households. Into tonight's NY open, the BOJ's next move and the UK budget's fallout should keep macro desks occupied alongside euro-area and Canadian data.
Commodities — Crude extends gains, gold capped
WTI crude extended its advance to $103.29, up 1.26%, after UKMTO reported a vessel fire in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, adding to Middle East risk premia. Gold futures slipped 0.73% to $4,002.10, holding above the $4,000 mark but with little conviction. For the remainder of the Asia session, WTI looks set to test the $103 handle on Hormuz-related risk while gold stays range-bound just above $4,000.
Geopolitics — Mideast and crypto risks simmer
A vessel caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, UKMTO said, with the cause, crew status and any environmental impact still unknown. Binance's suspected hack — among the largest in crypto history by Chainalysis's estimate — has also rattled sentiment, with the exchange suspending withdrawals and pledging to cover losses. Through the European open, Hormuz-related shipping risk and the fallout from the Binance hack look set to keep risk sentiment fragile.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/30 13:30 | JP | BOJ Press Conference | Focus on how far Governor Ueda leans toward a December hike |
| 10/30 15:29 | EU | CPI m/m (forecast 0.1%) | Gauge for ECB policy after Lagarde's early-exit announcement |
| 10/30 17:00 | EU | GDP q/q (forecast 0.1%) | Check on euro-area growth momentum |
| 10/30 20:30 | CA | GDP m/m (forecast 0.2%) | Input for the Bank of Canada's next move |
| 10/30 20:30 | US | Employment Cost Index q/q (forecast 0.8%) | Wage pressure read that feeds Fed rate expectations |