Asia Stocks Slide, Oil Jumps on Mideast Risk; Yen Steady
As of 2026-10-08 17:00 SGT
Key points
- FOMC minutes showed most officials favor another rate hike this year, and Fed Governor Waller reiterated in an Istanbul speech that "more hikes are needed," while flagging flexibility on pace. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.277%. Tonight's US jobless claims (forecast 200K) are in focus.
- WTI crude surged to $91.78 (+3.96%) as Middle East tensions escalated and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane threatened offshore output; Brent topped $103.
- Asia stocks slid broadly: the Nikkei 225 closed at 69,042 (-1.42%), back below the 70,000 level, while the Hang Seng closed at 23,786 (-2.04%).
- US equity futures stayed soft after Wednesday's pullback from record highs, with Dow futures at 51,089 (-0.70%) and S&P 500 futures at 7,825.25 (-0.35%).
- USD/JPY held a tight range near 158.24 (+0.12%), inside Wednesday's 157.57-158.29 band.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.24 | +0.12% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1193 | -0.05% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 69,042 | -1.42% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,786 | -2.04% |
| Dow futures | 51,089 | -0.70% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,825.25 | -0.35% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,246 | -0.50% |
| Gold futures | 4,151.10 | +0.25% |
| WTI crude | 91.78 | +3.96% |
| Bitcoin | 82,817 | -0.55% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.277% | +0.8bp |
Foreign exchange — USD/JPY range-bound
USD/JPY is consolidating near 158.24 (+0.12%), inside Wednesday's 157.57-158.29 range, with the yen's rate-differential drag still intact. Risk appetite was otherwise steady into the European open, with no fresh intervention signals overnight. Heading into the NY session, tonight's jobless claims print should decide whether USD/JPY retests the top of its recent range.
Equities — Asia extends losses
The Nikkei 225 closed down at 69,042 (-1.42%), slipping back under the 70,000 mark, with Japanese and South Korean shares pressured by rate and inflation worries, per ForexLive's Asia-Pacific wrap. The Hang Seng closed at 23,786 (-2.04%), with tech shares leading the decline. US futures stayed soft after Wednesday's retreat from record highs, with Dow futures at 51,089 (-0.70%) and S&P 500 futures at 7,825.25 (-0.35%). Into the NY open, futures point to a cautious start unless the jobless claims data surprises to the downside.
Macro — Hike bets simmer
FOMC minutes confirmed most officials see another hike as appropriate this year, and Governor Waller, speaking in Istanbul, said "more hikes are needed" while adding the pace "can be flexible," also downplaying September's softer payrolls print. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.277%, close to multi-decade highs, even as a recent bond auction eased some supply-concern pressure. France's fiscal troubles kept pressuring the euro, with EUR/GBP probing fresh 16-month lows and the ECB's Wunsch warning that higher bank reserve charges could backfire and risk credibility given France's €2.1 trillion debt load. Tonight's jobless claims (forecast 200K) should be the next test of how firmly the market is pricing in another 2026 hike.
Commodities — Oil surges
WTI crude jumped to $91.78 (+3.96%) and Brent topped $103 as Middle East tensions escalated and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane forced Shell and Chevron to shut in some offshore output. Gold futures held firm at $4,151.10 (+0.25%). Unless geopolitical risk eases heading into the NY session, oil looks set to hold its firmer bias.
Geopolitics — Mideast tensions flare
President Trump said he isn't keen on a deal with Iran, with the US reportedly readying options to resume strikes and prepare for a "massive bombing" campaign. In the Gulf, a tanker was hit off Qatar and Houthi forces claimed a missile attack on Riyadh's airport, keeping risk premia elevated into the European open. The swings in geopolitical risk remain the key driver for oil and safe-haven flows in the near term.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 20:15 | UK | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | Watch for any shift in policy tone |
| 10/08 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 200K) | Gauges labor market resilience and hike odds |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 6.3K) | Direct trigger for CAD moves |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.5%) | Input for BoC policy path |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | Tests whether sentiment is stabilizing |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Inflation Expectations | Watch for further upside drift |