S&P 500 Closes Above 7,800, USD/JPY Holds Near 158
As of 2026-10-07 07:00 SGT
Key points
- US equities extended their winning streak to four sessions, with the S&P 500 closing above 7,800 for the first time and the Nasdaq also closing at a record
- The August US trade deficit widened 13.7% month-on-month to $105.6 billion, the widest shortfall since just before last year's "Liberation Day" tariffs
- The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.269% (-4.2bp) as the recent multi-decade-high surge cooled, supporting risk appetite
- USD/JPY is holding in the lower 158s, while EUR/USD is firmer on a bid for French bonds
- Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz intensified again, driving up hazard premiums for crews
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.18 | +0.19% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1261 | +0.34% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 70,684 | +1.05% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 24,281 | +1.29% |
| Dow futures | 51,847 | +0.06% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,881.00 | +0.09% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,488 | +0.02% |
| Gold futures | 4,190.20 | +0.07% |
| WTI crude | 89.74 | +0.34% |
| Bitcoin | 85,527 | -0.26% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.269% | -4.2bp |
Foreign exchange — Steady
USD/JPY is at 158.18 (+0.19%), hugging the upper end of the prior session's 157.78-158.23 range. EUR/USD is at 1.1261 (+0.34%), just above the prior day's high of 1.1257, firmed by a bid for French government bonds and softer oil prices. Through today's Tokyo session, USD/JPY should stay confined to the lower-158s.
Equities — Record highs
US stocks notched a fourth straight day of gains, with the Dow closing up $253 at 51,521.28. The S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time and the Nasdaq also set a fresh record, driven by continued flows into AI-linked names. The Nikkei closed at 70,684 (+1.05%), reclaiming the 70,000 level for the first time in roughly three months, while the Hang Seng closed up 1.29% at 24,281. Dow futures are little changed overnight at 51,847 (+0.06%). At the Tokyo open, the Nikkei looks set to test whether it can hold above 70,000 on the back of Wall Street's momentum.
Macro — Mixed
The August trade deficit widened 13.7% m/m to $105.6 billion, the widest since just before last year's tariffs took effect, though the impact on risk appetite was limited. A softer jobs report had initially knocked down Fed rate-hike expectations, but the bond market has since erased almost all of that relief, with long-dated yields still hovering near multi-decade highs. At the BOJ, board member Sato, one of two dissenters against September's hike, said she now backs raising rates in stages as financial conditions remain accommodative, adding that rising oil costs skew the price outlook somewhat to the upside. Ahead of tonight's FOMC minutes, the market is left digesting mixed signals on the path for US rates.
Commodities — Firming
WTI crude is at $89.74 (+0.34%), recovering from near the bottom of the prior session's $88.74-$91.88 range. Reports of intensifying Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have driven up charter rates and hazard pay for crews, even as Hormuz crude flows have reportedly recovered to about 76% of prewar levels. Gold futures are at $4,190.20 (+0.07%), rebounding from the prior day's low of $4,150.40. Oil looks set to stay headline-driven on Middle East developments.
Geopolitics — Tense
Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified again, with captains transiting the strait now commanding roughly $100,000 a month plus a $50,000 bonus per transit, as shipowners pay steep hazard premiums to keep crews aboard. Hormuz crude flows have reportedly recovered to about 76% of prewar levels, though a diesel shortage persists. Iran is said to be awaiting a US response on a Hormuz-related proposal, and oil prices climbed again on the uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key upside risk for oil prices.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Gauge the internal debate on further hikes vs. holding steady |
| 10/08 20:15 | UK | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | Watch for signals on the BOE's policy stance |
| 10/08 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 200K) | Check the resilience of the labor market |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 6.3K) | Feeds into the broader North American labor market picture |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.5%) | Read alongside the US jobs picture |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | Check consumer spending appetite and inflation expectations |