Dollar Firm, Chips Rally Ahead of Tonight's Fed Decision
As of 2026-10-28 07:00 SGT
Key points
- The Dow eked out a second straight gain, up $15 (+0.03%), as a 4% jump in the Philadelphia semiconductor index offset a slide in Boeing after a disappointing cash-flow update.
- USD/JPY pushed above its prior-day range to 157.96 (+0.31%) on Fed-eve positioning, while EUR/USD broke below its prior-day low to 1.1133 (-0.41%).
- WTI eased to $99.89 (-0.01%) as fears of a US-Iran escalation faded; gold firmed to $4,077.50 (+0.07%).
- October consumer confidence rose to a four-month high, beating every forecast on the street.
- A loaded calendar lies ahead: Australian CPI, an expected RBNZ hike, the UK Budget and a Bank of Canada decision today, with the Fed verdict due at 02:00 SGT tonight.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 157.96 | +0.31% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1133 | -0.41% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 63,268 | +1.73% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 23,041 | -0.23% |
| Dow futures | 52,595 | +0.03% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,760.00 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,820 | +0.03% |
| Gold futures | 4,077.50 | +0.07% |
| WTI crude | 99.89 | -0.01% |
| Bitcoin | 80,784 | +0.97% |
| US 10-yr yield | 4.993% | +0.7bp |
Foreign exchange — dollar firm into the Fed decision
Fed-eve positioning kept the dollar bid: USD/JPY broke above its prior-day range (high 157.63, low 156.66) to trade at 157.96 (+0.31%), while EUR/USD broke below its prior-day low of 1.1175 to 1.1133 (-0.41%). Price action is likely to stay contained until tonight's verdict. At the cash open, USD/JPY looks set to hold the mid-157s as traders keep dry powder for tonight's Fed decision.
Equities — chips lead, Boeing weighs
The S&P 500 and Dow both notched back-to-back gains as chip stocks rallied and oil slipped, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up roughly 4% on AI-driven buying ahead of this week's mega-cap earnings. The Dow's advance was capped at just $15 (+0.03%) after Boeing shares slid on a disappointing cash-flow update tied to delayed 737 MAX production ramp-up. Futures were little changed into the Asia session, with the Nikkei having closed Tuesday up 1,078 points (+1.73%) at 63,268 and Nikkei futures extending another 920 points higher in the night session; the Hang Seng, by contrast, closed down 0.23% at 23,041. Into today's Tokyo open, chip and AI-linked names look best placed to extend Tuesday's rally.
Macro — confidence firms, all eyes on the Fed
October consumer confidence rose to a four-month high and beat every forecast on the street, adding to the case for a resilient US consumer even as the Fed heads into its decision. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady tonight, but CNBC's Jeff Cox flagged that Chair Warsh could use the statement and press conference to keep the door open to additional hikes; Fitch separately pencils in a December hike to 4.25% as its base case. The 10-year Treasury yield is little changed near 4.99% as the market waits. Ahead of tonight's Fed decision, yields and the dollar look set to stay range-bound until the statement lands.
Commodities — oil eases, gold holds its ground
WTI eased to $99.89 (-0.01%) as fears of a US-Iran escalation faded, even as UBS keeps a year-end Brent forecast near $110 on tight inventories and elevated freight costs. Gold firmed to $4,077.50 (+0.07%); Standard Chartered says the metal needs to hold $3,886 to avoid a deeper correction, with its Q4 target at $4,650. Into today's Tokyo open, oil looks set to stay capped below $100 while gold holds its recent gains.
Geopolitics — Israeli coalition arithmetic in focus
Exit polls from Israel's election showed a rebuke of Prime Minister Netanyahu but no clear winner, leaving coalition talks as the next flashpoint for the region. Separately, fading fears of a US-Iran escalation have helped take some of the geopolitical premium out of crude. At the cash open, the Israeli coalition math — as much as the Fed — looks set to keep a modest geopolitical premium in oil in play.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/28 08:30 | AU | CPI y/y (forecast 4.2%) | Key input for the RBA's next move; watch AUD reaction |
| 10/28 09:00 | NZ | Official Cash Rate (forecast 3.00%) | Third straight hike expected; NZD reaction in focus |
| 10/28 20:30 | UK | Annual Budget Release | Tax and fiscal-discipline details could move gilts and sterling |
| 10/28 21:45 | CA | Overnight Rate (forecast 2.50%) | Statement tone is the swing factor for CAD |
| 10/29 02:00 | US | Fed Funds Rate (forecast 4.00%) | Hold widely expected; statement and press conference on December guidance are key |
| 10/29 20:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast 0.3%) | Key inflation gauge for the case on further hikes |