US Yields Hit 24-Year High, Dollar Rallies, Stocks Slip
As of 2026-10-08 00:00 SGT
Key points
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2002 (5.311%), and the 30-year hit 5.70%; Wall Street sold off through the session, with the Dow down more than 500 points intraday.
- The dollar is broadly higher. The euro slid 0.64% to 1.1191, below 1.12, extending this week's slide amid France's deepening fiscal and political turmoil. USD/JPY held firm at 158.11 (+0.01%), inside yesterday's 157.84-158.51 range.
- Gold fell 1.32% to $4,131.80, breaking below the $4,200 level, while Bitcoin tumbled 2.54% to $83,371 as risk appetite soured broadly.
- European equities closed sharply lower on the yield surge and France's fiscal crisis: the DAX fell 1.26% to 25,129, the CAC 40 fell 1.22% to 7,769, and Italy's FTSE MIB dropped 2.44% to 50,011.50.
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.92% at 70,036, holding above the 70,000 level after recent gains.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 158.11 | +0.01% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1191 | -0.64% |
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 70,036 | -0.92% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 24,130 | +0.38% |
| Dow futures | 51,337 | -0.92% |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,844.50 | -0.37% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 31,365 | -0.38% |
| Gold futures | 4,131.80 | -1.32% |
| WTI crude | 89.03 | -0.46% |
| Bitcoin | 83,371 | -2.54% |
| US 10-yr yield | 5.311% | +4.2bp |
Foreign exchange — broad dollar strength, yen resilient
With New York still in session, the dollar is firm across the board as the 10-year yield's climb to its highest since 2002 drives safe-haven flows. The euro is the weakest major, down 0.64% to 1.1191 and below 1.12, extending this week's slide amid France's deepening fiscal and political turmoil. USD/JPY, by contrast, is steady at 158.11 (+0.01%), trading within yesterday's 157.84-158.51 range even as the dollar rallies elsewhere. USD/JPY should keep consolidating in the upper-157s to low-158s through the rest of the NY session.
Equities — risk-off as yields spike, Europe closes broadly lower
Wall Street is selling off through the session as the 10-year yield's jump to a 24-year high and the 30-year's move to 5.70% weigh on risk assets; the Dow was down more than 500 points intraday, with chipmakers, tech and bank shares leading losses (New York remains in session). European markets have already closed lower: the DAX fell 1.26% to 25,129, the CAC 40 dropped 1.22% to 7,769, and the FTSE 100 lost 0.74% to 10,464. Italy was hit hardest, with the FTSE MIB down 2.44% to 50,011.50 and its banking sub-index sliding 3.64%. The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.92% at 70,036, holding above the 70,000 mark after recent gains. The European selloff should keep pressure on US equities through the rest of the NY session as traders stay focused on yields.
Macro — inflation expectations creep higher as Fed minutes loom
The New York Fed's September consumer expectations survey showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.9% from 3.58%, the highest since May 2023, while one-year spending growth expectations rose to 5.5%, also the highest since that month. Later today brings the FOMC's meeting minutes along with remarks from President Trump, both seen as key inputs for the rate outlook. India's central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, lifting its policy rate to 5.50% amid inflation concerns. A further upside surprise in inflation expectations would reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative through the rest of the NY session.
Commodities — gold pressured by dollar and yields, oil holds steady
Gold fell 1.32% to $4,131.80, breaking below the closely watched $4,200 level as the stronger dollar and higher yields weigh. WTI crude is little changed at $89.03 (-0.46%), with supply-risk premia from escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Hormuz standoff keeping a floor under prices. Gold looks vulnerable to further yield-driven pressure through the rest of the NY session, while oil's geopolitical floor should hold.
Geopolitics — Middle East tensions and new Russia sanctions
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have intensified, with roughly 20 commercial vessels reportedly attacked near the Strait of Hormuz over the past month even as crude flows through the strait have recovered to about 76% of pre-war levels. Secretary of State Rubio said Tehran has missed "multiple" chances for a nuclear deal, with the US-Iran stalemate continuing. The European Union approved roughly 1,650 new Russia-related sanctions listings. Middle East risk should keep providing a floor for both oil and the dollar through the rest of the NY session.
Upcoming events
| Time (SGT) | Region | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 01:00 | US | President Trump Speaks | Watch for tariff- or policy-related remarks |
| 10/08 02:00 | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Rate-path debate details amid the yield surge |
| 10/08 16:30 | US | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Reaction to the recent yield spike |
| 10/08 20:15 | UK | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | Signals on the BOE's policy direction |
| 10/08 20:30 | US | Unemployment Claims (forecast 200K) | Gauge of labor market resilience |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Employment Change (forecast 6.3K) | Canadian labor market health |
| 10/09 20:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (forecast 6.5%) | Canadian labor market health |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Consumer Sentiment (forecast 47.5) | Consumer mood after the inflation-expectations jump |
| 10/09 22:00 | US | UoM Inflation Expectations | Another read on inflation expectations after the NY Fed survey |